Best Bets & Predictions For Michigan State vs Duke

Michigan State vs Duke Betting Odds

This will be the sixth and final meeting between Tom Izzo and Coach K in the NCAA Tournament. Those games have been intense, with Izzo winning the last round in the 2019 tournament.

In those five games, Duke is 3-2 straight up, but the Spartans are 3-2 against the spread.

Duke is the heavy favorite here, laying about seven points at the time of this writing.

Can Izzo do it again?

Michigan State Spartans Odds

Turnovers are the major problem with the Spartans.

Michigan State is sup-220 in offensive turnover rate, finishing dead last in that stat in Big Ten play. The Spartans’ 452 turnovers this season ranked 307th among D-I teams.

MSU relies on the guard tandem of AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker. Those two rack up crazy amounts of assists, and Sparty has one of the highest assist rates nationally.

But considering the two are so heavily relied on, they continually throw the ball away. As does Max Christie, Gabe Brown, and the rest of the roster.

It’s a big reason why Michigan State lost seven of its last 10 games.

But the Spartans gutted out a huge one-point win in the first round over Davidson. Michigan State had only seven turnovers, managed 13 assists, and shot 63% from inside the arc.

Duke Blue Devils Odds

The problem with Duke in this game is that Duke doesn’t pressure the ball.

Duke ranks outside the top-300 in defensive turnover rate and outside the top-350 in non-steal turnover rate. That already gives Sparty a big advantage in this game.

Duke doesn’t turn over the ball, however. But while Duke likes to run, it hasn’t gotten out in transition as much as in prior seasons.

Instead, the Devils work through Paolo Banchero on the perimeter, Mark Williams on the interior, and run cutters through them. Including AJ Griffin, Wendell Moore jr., and Trevor Keels.

Additionally, the Devils led the ACC in offensive rebounding rate and were third in offensive turnover rate. They took care of the ball, always getting a shot up, and often getting a second chance shot up.

Banchero is the guy. He’s averaging 17.6 points and 4.2 assists over his last five games. He’s a dominant scorer and playmaker, and he should be a top-three pick.

Michigan State vs Duke Betting Odds

My pick: Michigan State +7 (-110 at FanDuel)

Duke hasn’t impressed me at all. The Blue Devils let too many bad ACC teams hang around, and eventually dropped the ACC championship to Virginia Tech.

Duke jumped out to a big lead against Cal State Fullerton, too, before letting the Titans back into the game. The Titans couldn’t get over the hump but did cover the 17.5-point spread.

Plus, the Blue Devils are criminally overseeded as a two-seed. Tennessee should’ve gotten that seed after the season the Vols had.

Now, the Blue Devils are laying seven points against an Izzo-led team, and over 65% of the early tickets are on them.

I’m thinking the Blue Devils are overrated. I’m ready to back the other side.