Best Case Scenario Targets for the Bears in the NFL Draft: Wide Receiver Help In Day 2

Unfortunately for Bears fans, the team doesn’t have a first-round pick to look forward to this year. However, they have two second-round picks to work with, and Chicago has shown this offseason that it will be patient in rebuilding the roster with value.

Head coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles will enter their first season with the team working with one of the most talent-deficient rosters in the NFL. Still, there’s plenty to be excited about, namely the development of potential franchise passer Justin Fields.

Justin Fields pic.twitter.com/2tsbcAy69y

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 1, 2022

Bears’ Offseason Round-Up

This offseason saw the Bears’ new regime clean house with several high-profile departures on both sides of the ball. Khalil Mack was traded to the Chargers for a second-round pick, and the departures of Akiem Hicks, Bilal Nichols, and Eddie Goldman leave the team very light upfront.

On offense, the Bears saw Allen Robinson leave for the Rams in free agency, leaving behind one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the NFL. The losses of Jason Peters, James Daniels, Germain Ifedi, and Elijah Wilkinson underscore the need across the offensive line.

The Bears signed a handful of veterans to help replenish the roster, but their acquisitions were limited to low-cost, replacement-level talent. Chicago projects as having the most cap space in the NFL next season, so an offseason of unloading contracts and trimming fat should serve them well in the long run.

Bears Remaining Team Needs

Wide Receiver: Darnell Mooney caught 81 passes for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns last season, and I’m very excited about his long-term trajectory. However, the Bears still have a dearth of talent at the wide receiver position. Supporting Justin Fields with another productive pass-catcher has to be a top priority in the draft this year.

Offensive Line: Teven Jenkins, the team’s second-round pick last year, was limited to 157 snaps as a rookie, but he should be their starting left tackle this year. The team’s offensive line is very much in flux outside of him and Cody Whitehair. The Bears could look to use a premium pick on a tackle or the interior, depending on how the board falls.

Cornerback: Jaylon Johnson is a solid ascending cornerback, but he’s not an elite athlete, and the Bears don’t have much in the way of high-upside young talent outside of him. The cornerback position is increasingly important with the elite wide receiver talent in the NFL, and the team will likely be adding to its secondary in the draft.

Defensive Tackle: After the losses of Hicks, Nichols, and Goldman, the Bears are severely lacking even rotation-level talent along the defensive line. Justin Jones was a solid signing, but the Bears need to add to the group. Luckily, this is a deep defensive line class with potential starters on the board, even lasting into Day 3. Edge profiles as less of a need given the upside of Trevis Gipson.

Losing Khalil Mack stinks but it’s going to be fun to see what Trevis Gipson is made of 🐻⬇️ pic.twitter.com/AWgcPgonz7

— Bears Nation (@BearsNationCHI) April 9, 2022

Ryan Poles Draft History and Tendencies

Ryan Poles is one of the youngest general managers in the NFL, but he has been an executive with the Kansas City Chiefs since 2009. He has filled several roles in their scouting department and being the assistant director of player personnel and executive director of player personnel.

Poles has never been the lead decision-maker in an NFL draft, but we can glean some insights from his draft history with the Chiefs to project the decisions he might make this year. Poles became the director of college scouting in 2016, one year before Brett Veach was hired as GM, so we’ll use the more recent drafts in this analysis.

The Chiefs had a consistent Power-Five bias over the last several years, with 29 of the team’s 39 draft picks since 2016 being from Power-Five conferences (74.4%) and a whopping 13 of 39 coming from the SEC alone (33%). While this doesn’t mean Poles won’t draft a small-school player, it should be considered a data point.

Ryan Poles sticking to his plan. Gotta say I respect it. pic.twitter.com/m4NQsaMBIo

— dave (@runbackdave) March 21, 2022

Poles and Relative Athletic Score Preferences

Poles was also part of a front office that consistently prioritized athleticism, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The team’s draft picks averaged a Relative Athletic Score of 7.53 with a median of 8.08 since 2016, which is solidly above average. On offense, the Chiefs averaged a 7.9 RAS among their draft picks.

The Chiefs drafted six wide receivers since 2016, and their average RAS was 8.97, which is very elite. Half of those receivers ran a 40-yard dash under 4.4 seconds, and four of six had a 3-cone time under 4.8 seconds. The team had preferences for receivers with good length, even among shorter players.

Poles also spoke to his belief about the shift in body type of successful offensive linemen at the combine – “we’ve gotta get lighter, we’ve gotta get quicker.” The Chiefs drafted five offensive linemen with an average RAS of 8.82 since 2016, and those players primarily graded out well in explosiveness (vertical and broad jump) and agility (3-cone and short shuttle).

Finally, at the cornerback position, Poles was part of a regime that prioritized size and length in addition to athleticism. A handful of smaller-school prospects fit that billing and will be available on Day 3 in this year’s draft, but it will be interesting to see how Poles balances between his big-program preference and the size thresholds for the position.

Best-Case Scenario Draft Targets For Chicago Bears

Along with their own second-round pick at #39 overall, the Bears also have the Chargers’ second-round pick at #48 overall from the Khalil Mack trade. While those two picks would give the Bears an intriguing opportunity to trade up in the draft, they will likely sit tight and select two players in the second round as they have many needs across the roster. Let’s look at which players could fall to the Bears and set up ideal scenarios.

WR Skyy Moore, Western Michigan: Currently the 41st-ranked prospect on my big board, Skyy Moore should be right in the range of where the Bears will be selecting with their first second-round pick. Moore played quarterback and defensive back in high school before transitioning to wide receiver at Western Michigan, so he’s just scratching the surface from a technical standpoint. Still, his release package and route running are solidly refined.

Moore has special elusiveness and packs a powerful punch for a smaller wide receiver. He doesn’t quite meet the length measurable preferences the Chiefs had with Poles, but they drafted Mecole Hardman, who landed in the 10th percentile with 30 1/4” arms compared to Moore’s 36th percentile with 31 1/4” arms.

Despite the small-school pedigree, Moore had success against some top competition when he had the opportunity. Moore has Pittsburgh connections with Bears’ offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and his talents as a slot receiver would allow the team to continue developing Darnell Mooney as an outside receiver.

Skyy Moore – WR

One of the most under appreciated route runners in the class whether out wide, in the slot, vs press, vs off-man, or vs zone.

His a ability to attack leverage, space, and a defender is great. Throw amazing ball skills and the ability to win on 3 levels? 😙😙 pic.twitter.com/WjLhofOrOd

— Matt Lane (@Matty_KCSN) April 14, 2022

WR George Pickens, Georgia: While Poles and the Chiefs never had an issue drafting smaller wide receivers, George Pickens could be the more likely target over Moore. Pickens tested with a stellar RAS of 9.37 and has the length the Chiefs tended to covet at receiver with 66th percentile 32.38” arms.

I see Pickens coming off the board in the first round, but he would likely be the pick for the Bears if he’s still available. At 6’3” and 195 lbs, Pickens ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash and combines many physical attributes that suggest a future as a productive X-receiver. Pickens also has the big-school pedigree and comes from the SEC, which Poles and the Chiefs always preferred.

OT Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan: The range of outcomes for Raimann is as extensive as anyone in the projected first or second-round area, and there’s a strong possibility he could still be on the board when the Bears make their first selection. At 24 years old, Raimann is on the older side for a draft prospect, but he’s only been playing offensive tackle for two years as he was originally a tight end.

Raimann is an elite athlete who tested with a 9.87 RAS and has the athleticism Poles covets, especially in the explosiveness and agility categories. With Jenkins slated to start at left tackle, Raimann would conceivably be the Bears’ starting right tackle and provide them with a much higher baseline of solid play than they can currently bank on. With Justin Fields still in the early stages of his development, building a stable offensive line has to be a top priority.

CB Kaiir Elam, Florida: I see a significant drop-off from the top five cornerbacks in this class to the rest of the available players at that position, which likely means Elam will be a first-round pick due to that scarcity. However, it would be a slam dunk pick for a cornerback-needy team if he falls to the Bears. Elam has excellent press coverage traits, and with a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, he has the speed to cover receivers downfield.

Elam also has the size that Poles and the Chiefs coveted in their cornerback draft picks, as he checked in at 6’2”, 192 lbs. His arms were a touch shorter at 30.88” (37th percentile), but he is an ideal fit for Matt Eberflus’s match-zone defense. Elam also has the big-school pedigree that Ryan Poles has a history of drafting.

Kaiir Elam battling with Jameson Williams at the bottom of the screen pic.twitter.com/QmYwyMY4US

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) April 18, 2022

OG Kenyon Green, Texas A&M: The draft community seems to be all over the map on Kenyon Green, as some view him as a lock to be in the top 20 while others don’t have a first-round grade on him. I’m somewhere in between – I have him as my 27th graded prospect overall – but there’s a world where he slips to the second round. His technical refinement and positional versatility help him profile as an instant-impact offensive lineman.

Kenyon Green’s combine and pro-day testing were disappointing. His RAS of 5.99 falls well below the average 8.82 RAS among Chiefs’ offensive linemen drafted since 2016. In particular, a 5.12-second 20-yard shuttle ranked in just the 4th percentile. However, if the Bears are willing to overlook the athletic deficiencies, they would likely be landing a high-value interior offensive lineman with tackle flexibility in the second round.

OT/OG Tyler Smith, Tulsa: Unlike Green, Tyler Smith graded out as one of the best athletes at offensive tackle in this class with an impressive 8.77 RAS. In particular, a 5.02-second 40-yard dash landed in the 90th percentile, which is especially impressive for a bruising 324-pound interior lineman. Smith’s athleticism has some teams evaluating him as an offensive tackle long-term.

Tyler Smith is one of the youngest players in this draft class as he just turned 21 years old at the beginning of April. His long-term trajectory is highly enticing, and for a team entering a multi-year rebuilding process, his upside to grow into a high-level offensive tackle or guard would be very intriguing. Given his athletic traits and young age, I don’t expect him to be on the board for the Bears, but he would be a great selection.

.@TulsaFootball‘s Tyler Smith might be one of, if not the, best run blocking OL in the entire draft.

Mauler, physical, and still ample room to get better. Think he ends up in (or just outside) the top-20 overall

One of my favorites. Easy to love the 📽️ below. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/O71VSalUft

— Eric Galko (@EricGalko) April 16, 2022