Betting Odds and Prediction For Commanders vs Texans (11/20/22)

Washington heads into Houston after pulling off their biggest win of the season, taking down the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles 32-21 on Monday Night Football. The Texans return home from New York after their fourth straight loss, lowering their record to a league worst 1-7-1. Let’s take a look at who the matchups and odds favor for the first contest between these two teams in four years.

Washington Commanders Vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds

Commanders are favored (-3.5) over the Texans (+3.5) with the over/under set at 40.5. The Commanders might not be one of the NFL’s elite teams, but are certainly several notches above the Texans so it’s surprising to see them favored by so little.

Washington Commanders Vs. Houston Texans Prediction

With the looming return of Carson Wentz from a thumb injury, the Commanders have a tough decision to make. Stick with QB Taylor Heinicke going forward, or switch back to Wentz as the starter. Given that Heinicke has led the team to a 3-1 record after Wentz and the Commanders started the season 2-4, it seems smart to roll with Heinicke’s momentum. Not only does Heinicke have the momentum, but he has his best teammate, WR Terry McLaurin playing better. McLaurin has averaged over 10 more receiving yards per game since Heinicke took over and comes off a 128 receiving game versus the Eagles.

Hell of a throw.
Hell of a catch.
🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯

📺 #WASvsPHI pic.twitter.com/UGrUb2T5ru

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) November 15, 2022

The classic quote, “Houston, we have a problem,” is an understatement for the myriad of issues plaguing the Texans. The Davis Mills led Texans have not only failed to show long term promise, but Mills is tied for the 2nd most interceptions, with nine. Mills, who was supposed to at least manage the game and prevent mistakes, is clearly causing the brunt of them. The Texans have also been in the headlines for stripping veteran WR Brandin Cook’s captaincy because he requested a trade away from the 1-7-1 Texans. RB Dameon Pierce is once again the sole bright spot for the offense as he put up another 94 yards this past Sunday and moved up to the 5th leading rusher in the league.

I believe the Commanders will have no problem taking care of the Texans Sunday, especially if they continue to start Heinicke. The Commanders also have more to play for, as they are the eighth seed in the NFC right now, putting them in the thick of the playoff race. Commanders fans, don’t fear this game just because your team is on the road. The Commanders have won three straight road games which will bode well for them here.

Prediction: Commanders win, 22-14, under hits.

Betting Trends

• Commanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss

Commander vs Texans Key Injuries

Washington Commanders Injuries: Cole Holcomb (Q), J.D. McKissic (Q), David Mayo (Q), Chase Young (Q), Milo Eifler (Q), Wes Schweitzer (Q), Josh Drayden (Q), Willie Beavers (Q), Carson Wentz (Q)

Houston Texans Injuries: Neville Hewitt (Q), Justin Britt (Q), Kevin Pierre-Louis (Q), Kolby Harvell-Peel (Q), Jonathan Greenard (Q), Michael Dwumfour (Q), John Metchie III WR (Q)

Key Matchups

How will this Texans offensive line hold up against this Commanders defensive front? Will the Commanders be able to fully take advantage of this Houston run defense?

The Texans Offensive Line vs the Commanders Defensive Front

The Commanders might finally get DE Chase Young back this weekend from last year’s torn ACL. Young likely won’t be back to his full self in his first game back, but his presence will hopefully energize the rest of the Commanders front and give the Texans another player to game plan for. While the Texans offensive line has performed pretty well this season, the Giants still had their way with them last week as they allowed four sacks.

Commanders Run Game vs Texans Run Defense

A huge factor in the Commanders big win over the Eagles was their run game. The tandem of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson helped the Commanders rush for 152 yards on nearly 50 rush attempts. This strong running performance allowed the Commanders to win the time of possession battle by 20 minutes. One area they still need to improve is yards per carry, as they average a measly 3.1 YPC. Washington has a good chance to improve this mark versus the Texans league worst rush defense which gives up 181 yards rushing per game. The Commanders should look to feature Gibson and Robinson after the Texans allowed 152 yards to Saquon Barkley last week.

Washington Commanders Depth Chart

QB: Taylor Heinicke
RB1: Brian Robinson Jr.
RB2: Antonio Gibson
LWR: Terry McLaurin
RWR: Jahan Dotson
SWR: Curtis Samuel
TE1:Logan Thomas

Houston Texans Depth Chart

QB: Davis Mills
RB1: Rex Burkhead
RB2: Dameon Pierce
LWR: Nico Collins
RWR: Brandin Cooks
SWR: Chris Moore
TE1: O.J. Howard