Betting Prediction For Ole Miss Vs. Arkansas (11/19/22)

In what will be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend without any conference championship implications, Ole Miss travels to Woo Pig Sooie land to battle it out against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Get your popcorn ready as this one will shape out to be a high paced scoring fest.

Ole Miss Vs. Arkansas Odds

While points are expected to be scored in bunches, odds makers think this is going to go down to the wire as the number has stayed pretty firm at -2.5 in the Rebels favor. The number has dipped to -2 in some shops and may move even more should Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson be confirmed good to go.

As you may have guessed by the intro, the total has been set high and has only climbed since the opening number with both offenses having massive advantages over each other’s swiss cheese defense. Opening at 61, this number has shot up to 64 and has remained firm there.

Ole Miss Vs. Arkansas Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Over 63.5

If you follow me on Twitter then you would know that I already grabbed this over at 61. Good news, I still like this up to 64 for small and there are still some 63.5’s out there. A great reminder to open as many sports betting accounts as you can on different books and to shop around for the best number possible.

As mentioned earlier, both offenses are going to have massive advantages over each other’s defenses. Arkansas has proven the inability to make open field tackles and their secondaries have been decimated by injuries. Ole Miss’s play makers will be poised for a big game as they gash Arkansas on the open field as the Razorbacks are one of the worst at limiting Def Explosiveness.

While big gains may be limited on the other end of the field, Arkansas will be more than capable of methodically moving it down with limited resistance. Ole Miss does a great job of limiting explosiveness but are very poor at stopping sustained drives that inevitably result in points.

If KJ Jefferson is deemed good to go, Ole Miss will struggle mightily to limit his dual threat ability as Jefferson is one of the best ground runners in football under center. Be sure to monitor Jefferson’s injury news before making a play on this total.

Ole Miss Vs. Arkansas Key Matchups

Will either defense be able to slow down each other’s stud running backs? Can Ole Miss limit the Arkansas defensive line?

Ground game vs Rush defense

If there is one glaring advantage both teams have over each other is that both are more than capable of dealing damage on the ground against each other’s poor rush defense. This sets up as a massive spot for Quinshon Judkins and Raheim Sanders who will look to put on a show.

Not only will Ole Miss have to worry about how they will stop Raheim Sanders, but they also will have to deal with KJ Jefferson’s ground game as well. Sanders has run for 1,147 yards and seven touchdowns while Jefferson has added 425 yards and six touchdowns in his limited time on the field when healthy.

They benefit from an incredible offensive line, one that specializes in getting a push back and allowing standard runs down the field. This will be a key metric to watch if you’re backing the Razorbacks as they were uncharacteristically shredded by LSU’s defensive pressure.

As for Ole Miss, they will find success in the open field by taking advantage of the Razorbacks inability to make open field tackles. Should Quinshon get to the second level then you can expect highlight level gains by the stud back.

Battle in the trenches

While the Arkansas offensive line struggled to limit the LSU pressure, the defensive line held their own and did damage to the backfield. If Arkansas wants any chance at winning this massive SEC showdown, they will need the defensive line to get to Jaxon Dart before they make plays down the field to help out the weak secondary as much as possible.

Verdict

Take the over at no higher than 64 in what will be a thrilling display of offensive dominance.