Betting Predictions & Injury Report For Raiders Vs. Broncos (11/20/22)

At times, this has been an extremely hard-fought divisional rivalry; right now it’s a matchup between teams that have combined for 5 wins through the first 10 weeks of the season. This Sunday, the Broncos and Raiders will be fighting for pride, bragging rights, and something positive to hang onto as their seasons are already starting to come to a close. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for this AFC West clash.

Raiders Vs. Broncos Betting Odds

The Broncos are just three-point favorites at home, signaling that sportsbooks see these teams as essentially even on a neutral field. The points total is set at 41, which makes a lot of sense given the anemic Broncos offense, and the lack of health on the Vegas side of things.

Raiders Vs. Broncos Prediction

Broncos country- this season is fried. Year 1 under new head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and with Russell Wilson under center, has been nothing short of a true disaster. Hackett has proven he has no ability to run an NFL team, Russ looks almost implausibly washed up, and the Broncos have already been essentially dead in the water for weeks. The rest of this season will essentially come down to players and coaches earning their spot for next year and beyond, as the team doesn’t really have any reason to push for a high draft spot, since they sent their next two years’ first and second round picks to Seattle in the trade for Wilson. Ouch. To be fair to the Broncos, they’re one of the most-injured teams in the league; they have the 29th-best Banged Up Score in the league right now. But with a quarterback like Wilson leading the way, it’s hard to justify an offense that comes dead last in the league in both total scoring and red zone efficiency.

The Raiders have also been the victims of an unbelievably mind-numbing coaching hire in Josh McDaniels, who the Broncos themselves could have told them would not do a good job; his first failed head coaching exploit was at the helm in Denver. The Raiders have dealt with a few key injuries- their “big four” of offensive skill players have shared the field for under 50 total snaps this year- so it’s somewhat hard to judge them on their output. That being said, their serial blown leads and one-score losses are completely unacceptable; at a certain point, the losses go from fluky, to a systemic issue, and inability to win in tight games usually comes from the top- coaching failures. That being said, it seems that McDaniels somehow still holds the confidence of the Raiders high brass, so he’s going to have at least the rest of the season to keep trying his “best” and building towards a second season in Vegas.

This is sort of a tough one. Denver has one of the best home-field advantages in the sport, but the Raiders aren’t unused to playing at Mile High, as they do it annually. I’ll take Oakland to cover the small spread, as they tend to be competitive every week despite their terrible record. I’d even think about them at +130 to win outright; this is a game where McDaniels might actually not be at an enormous disadvantage compared to the guy holding the clipboard on the other sideline. In terms of the points total, that one’s a no-brainer; this thing’s going under. As bad of a cook as Russ has been on the offensive side, the Denver defense has been outstanding- the team would actually be 8-1 if the offense scored exactly 18 points in regulation each week. 41 would be a pretty high scoring output for any game involving these Broncos, so I love the value on the under.

Betting Trends

• The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their past 8 games against teams with losing records, while the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their past 6 games when hosting a team with a losing record.
• The over is 5-1 in the past 6 games the Raiders have played against in-conference competition.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these division foes.

Key Injuries

Raiders Injuries: Hunter Renfrow (O), Darren Waller (O)

Broncos Injuries: Justin Simmons (Q), Jerry Jeudy (Q), Garret Bolles (O)

Key Matchups

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Raiders Vs. Broncos below.

Josh Jacobs vs. Broncos Run Defense

For a second in October, it looked like the Raiders were getting their season together. They won 2 games out of 3, and were any score away from knocking off the Chiefs in the one loss. The commonality through those three games was an absolutely scorching stretch of play from Josh Jacobs. One of the two wins was actually over the Broncos, and in that contest Jacobs picked up 144 yards and scored twice. He’s cooled down significantly since, but PFF still has him as their top-rated rusher on he season, and this weekend he scored his first touchdown since that short run of form. Essentially, his production could be a major key in determining whether the Raiders are able to finally get in the win column, as he’s been excellent in wins, and uninspiring in losses, save for the impressive effort in Kansas City. According to PFF, he’s running behind just the 25th-best run blocking o-line in the league, but there’s certainly some talent- tackle duo Kolton Miller and Jermaine Eluemenor have both been generally solid, although the interior line has not held up their end of the bargain.

Interestingly enough, run defense has been a relative weakness for Denver. While their pass and overall defense rank within the top 3 or better in the league by many metrics, the run-stopping brigade is much closer to league average, just above there actually as per PFF. Alex Singleton has been the brightest spot amongst front-seven players, earning a PFF run-stopping grade of 74.3 and missing less than 10% of his tackles. The d-line needs to be better though, as there’s hardly a single standout performer to highlight, with Bradley Chubb sent off to Miami. The Denver pass defense is probably going to make Vegas be a one-dimensional team on offense- but that will be just fine with them if they’re able to execute in that aspect of the game and run the ball downhill for four quarters. It will be up to the Broncos to make sure they’re not able to go on the road and do just that.

Broncos Air Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

As we all know, Wilson and the offensive skill players have been some of the biggest letdowns in the whole league this year. PFF ranks the receiving group dead last in the whole league, and estimates that Denver has gotten the fourth-worst QB play out of Wilson compared to all other teams’ starting QB or group of QBs. It’s almost impossible to believe with all the talent they have, but Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have both severely underperformed. Both have been more drop-prone than ever before, and Sutton has somehow scored just one touchdown on 350 routes run. The line has actually been solid in pass blocking over the full season, but their play has fallen off lately due to some key injuries.

Maxx Crosby has once again been really good for Vegas in the pass rush, he has a win rate of 17% and has already registered 7 sacks on the season. Other than him, however, the Raiders have done a pretty horrendous job of creating pressure on opposing passers this year. In the secondary, Duron Harmon has been a bright spot, and one of the few positives McDaniels was able to translate over from his time in New England. Much like Crosby though, Harmon is more or less alone in performing well in his area of defense for Vegas. That being said, if there was ever a game to get back on track, it’s against this Broncos offense. Wilson was actually solid in the last head to head matchup between these teams, and that was in Vegas- if it happens again at his own stadium, don’t expect the Raiders to walk away with another win.

Raiders Depth Chart

QB: Derek Carr
RB1: Josh Jacobs
RB2: Brandon Bolden
LWR: Davante Adams
RWR: Mack Hollins
SWR: DJ Turner
TE1: Foster Moreau

Broncos Depth Chart

QB: Russell Wilson
RB1: Melvin Gordon III
RB2: Latavius Murray
LWR: Courtland Sutton
RWR: Jerry Jeudy
SWR: KJ Hamler
TE1: Albert Okwuegbunam