The Chicago Bears battle the Los Angeles Chargers in Sunday Night Football (10/29/23). Get Bears vs. Chargers First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.
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Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers First Touchdown Picks
The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Buccaneers vs. Bills game?
Keenan Allen First Touchdown (+700 FD)
The Chargers are favored to score the first touchdown here. They have accomplished this feat in five of six games and rank 6th in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play.
Chicago’s secondary is a pitiful unit; they have allowed the 2nd most receiving touchdowns per game, the 3rd most net yards gained per pass attempt and rank 29th in opponent dropback EPA per play. Opposing passing offenses are routinely torching them, which heavily indicates Keenan Allen here.
Allen leads Los Angeles in team first touchdowns, target share, receptions, yards, receiving touchdowns, and red zone targets. His competition is slim with Mike Williams out for the season due to injury, so Allen easily holds the most first touchdown equity of Los Angeles’ pass-catchers.
Given his odds, he needs to score the first touchdown about 12 percent of the time for the bet to have a positive expected value.
Gerald Everett First Touchdown (+1800 FD)
Since week four (post Mike Williams injury), Everett ranks 2nd on the Chargers in red zone targets and receiving touchdowns. The tight end has scored in two consecutive games now, and Justin Herbert clearly trusts the chemistry the veteran to deliver. As stated above, Chicago’s secondary is abysmal, so Everett will be able to create space in the red zone and find himself open for a touchdown. He has the size and hands to bring down contested targets too. Everett must score first about 5 percent of the time based on his odds.
DJ Moore First Bears Touchdown (+460 FD)
Los Angeles’ secondary is also a horrific unit that has been trampled all year. They are tied with Chicago for the 2nd most receiving touchdowns per game allowed, have given up the 2nd most net yards gained per pass attempt, and rank 31st in opponent dropback EPA per play.
Rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent is still figuring out how to play against NFL defenses, but he has seen moderate success so far given the circumstances. In his first start last week, Bagent threw for 162 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions on a 72.4 completion percentage. He targeted lead receiver DJ Moore nine times, who remains the top option in this offense. Moore should destroy this Chargers secondary and provide Bagent with a consistent outlet. Given that rookie quarterbacks (especially non first round picks) tend to hyper-focus on their first reads, Moore is set for a big game.
He needs to score Chicago’s first touchdown about 17 percent of the time.