Baylor (11-1) heads to Dallas to take on Oklahoma (11-1) on Saturday in Jerry World. This is another rematch of a game we saw earlier this season. After Baylor 31-10 at halftime. Oklahoma came all the way back to defeat Baylor 34-31 in Waco. Baylor definitely has revenge on their mind, but Oklahoma knows that if they lose, they will be out of a College Football Playoff Spot. However, Baylor ranks seventh in the College Football Playoff rankings, so if they pull off the upset over Oklahoma, they have a chance to leap into the playoffs. As of writing this, 70 percent of bettors are taking Baylor at nine-point underdogs, and 73 percent are taking the over at 64.5 points.
Date: Saturday, December 7, 2019
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Baylor has received a lot of love on the defensive side, but their offense has been fairly solid this season. They rank 23rd in success rate and points per game. Also, they have one of the best rushing attacks in the nation rank 23rd in success rate and 26th in explosiveness. This is a matchup that Baylor will need to exploit because of the Oklahoma rush defense. The Sooner rank 42nd in rushing defense and 112th in allowing explosive rushing plays. Also, this gives Baylor and advantage to controlling the clock and keeping Oklahoma’s offense off the field. Now, Oklahoma’s front seven does have an edge on the Bears offensive line. Baylor will need to get off some big rushing plays, but Oklahoma’s defensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage.
Earlier in the year, Baylor had one of the best defenses in the country. They have dropped off the success rate to 48th, but are still holding teams to 18.5 points per game, which is 13th in the country. The Bears will need to play nearly perfect football on defense to give themselves a chance to slow down the Oklahoma offense. In their first matchup, Baylor forced two turnovers that led to 14 points in the first half. They will need to create this kind of havoc again to help keep up with the Sooners offense. Baylor ranks fifth in havoc, so this is something they are capable of doing. Also, Baylor is capable of limiting the explosive plays Oklahoma can have. They rank eighth in the nation in this category, so it will be important for Baylor to make Oklahoma earn their points on Saturday.
Lincoln Riley has created another prolific offense thanks to Jalen Hurts. They rank second in success rate, and sixth in points. However, they are going up against a Baylor defense that gave them fits the last time they played. Now, Oklahoma has the best rushing attack and the second best passing attack in college football. There isn’t much Baylor can do to slow them down except make the Sooners earn their points. Baylor has been one of the best teams in the country in limiting explosive plays, so Oklahoma will need to manufacture drives, which shouldn’t be difficult for them. Also, they will have the edge in the trenches as their offensive line is one of the best in the country. If they find themselves in short yardage situations, they should be able to stay on the field.
Although the numbers won’t support their defensive success in recent weeks, they have improved down the stretch in Big 12 play. Oklahoma has been very unfortunate with turnover luck this season, which is why their opponents scores have been inflated. They allowed 14 points off turnovers against Baylor in their first matchup, but their offense shouldn’t turn the ball over three times on Saturday. Also, their front seven is better than Baylor’s offensive line, and rank 18th in havoc created. They should give this Baylor offense headaches trying to move the football. Plus, the Bears offense has struggled down the stretch of Big 12 play outside of their game against Kansas. Oklahoma doesn’t have a top tier defense, but they can do enough to limit the Baylor offense.
Betting Pick: Oklahoma -9
A lot of the bets are coming in on Baylor, but I disagree. Oklahoma closed at 10.5-point favorites in their first matchup, and although they didn’t cover the first game, they should cover Saturday. Their offense has had the worst turnover luck this season, and it seems like that is starting to go away, which means more possessions and more points for the Sooners offense. Also, Baylor’s offense has not looked great the second half of this season. They have been outplayed and relied on turnover luck in some of their wins, and should hit a major regression on Saturday. Nine points will be a sweat on Saturday, but Oklahoma should get it done.