Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (12/10/23)

Get Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs First Touchdown picks & odds for the (12/10/23) matchup as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday’s game.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup?

James Cook First Touchdown (+1300 PB)

Don’t look now, but the Buffalo Bills are starting to look like a potential Super Bowl contender as they start to get healthier. They battled the Eagles to the very end and now come off of a much-needed bye week before a massive showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead.

Their playoff hopes largely hinge on the result of this game, getting to take on a reeling Chiefs unit who is starting to face the injury bug themselves. That elevates the Bills offense and their potential for putting up points in a hurry, keeping their playoff hopes alive for a wildcard spot.

As for who will be in a position to start the scoring parade? Look no further than the Bills ground game as they come into this matchup with a massive advantage on the ground. This has been a strength for the offense, ranking seventh in Rush DVOA, third in Rush Success Rate, and fourth in Rush EPA.

Leading the ground game is James Cook, the Bills lead back who gashes opposing defenses with an elite blend of speed and maneuverability. He is in a great position to shred a Chiefs defense who has mightily struggled at stopping the run, a front seven that clocks in at 28th in Def Rush DVOA, 31st in Def Rush EPA, and 21st in Def Rush Success Rate.

Capitalizing on scoring opportunities when inside the redzone is vital when playing against the Chiefs as they can score a touchdown at a moment’s notice. That means we may see more rush attempts in an effort to avoid a turnover worthy play from Josh Allen, giving Cook a higher chance of cashing this ticket.

Josh Allen First Touchdown (+1300 PB)

While James Cook is the Bills lead back and the direct recipient for red zone looks on the ground, Josh Allen is also a vulture in the same regard for designed runs and scrambles out of the pocket. Just because the Bills should abuse the ground game when in scoring position, doesn’t mean that they will exactly do so and playing Josh Allen helps combat against it.

Unlike their front seven, the Chiefs secondary has done a masterful job in coverage by ranking top-5 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Should the Bills call for the pass in scoring position, Allen may find himself having a hard time trying to connect with his pass catchers in a shortened field. That will lead to two things, him making an errand throw or taking off on the run.

Better yet, the Bills have shown no issue with running the qb sneak at the goal line. That’s a near automatic touchdown with Allen’s size and athleticism, making it near impossible to stop him when near the goal line like we have seen with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.

Travis Kelce First Touchdown (+650 FD)

Just because Travis Kelce is starting to show signs of regression, doesn’t mean he is still just as much of a scoring threat when inside the red zone. Kelce has built a career of being one of the smartest tight ends in football, having a knack for exploiting gaps in coverage while playing behind the defense.

Better yet, coverage has been a weak point for the Bills defense as they have battled through a plethora of injuries. The back end has dipped to as low as 22nd in Def Pass DVOA and 21st in Def Pass Success Rate. Defending the end zone through the air has been a strength, yet Kelce is more than capable of busting any coverage.

Better yet for Kelce, the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs pass catchers have yet to step up as a reliable target for Mahomes to connect to. Outside of a few Rashee Rice flashes, the Chiefs receivers have been severely underwhelming.

Like the logic behind the Bills wanting to abuse the run, the Chiefs also need to optimize their scoring opportunities against a Bills offense who can match their scoring pace. Mahomes throwing to his safety blanket in Travis Kelce is their best bet to do so, especially if their ground game sputters early on.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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