Get Bills vs. Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (11/26/23) matchup
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Bills vs. Eagles Player Prop Picks
The Buffalo Bills (6-5) visit the Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) this Sunday (11/26/23) at 4:25 p.m. EST. This matchup has plenty of star power including two elite quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, two elite wide receivers in Stefon Diggs and AJ Brown, and plenty of other exciting players like D’Andre Swift and Dalton Kincaid. This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Bills vs. Eagles player prop bets.
D’Andre Swift over 15.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
D’Andre Swift is one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league and has been very involved in the Eagles’ passing attack recently. He has over 20 receiving yards in 5 of his last 7 games including exactly 31 yards in back-to-back games. Swift is averaging 19 receiving yards per game on 3.3 receptions.
The Eagles used Swift very well on screen passes over the middle last week against the Chiefs. He busted one for a 20-yard gain and almost had another huge gain but the defender made a miraculous tackle on the play.
The Eagles had success running middle screens to D’Andre Swift against the Chiefs.
On the 1st one I would like to see Swift get north-south immediately, but the spin move on the defender is impressive.
On the 2nd one he does get vertical and it pays off with a really nice gain. pic.twitter.com/6S33ld5es3
— Charles “Chux” Maranan (@ChuxMaranan) November 22, 2023
Swift gets a good matchup this week against Buffalo’s defense, which is allowing the fifth-most receptions (5.91) and the third-most receiving yards (49.5) per game to opposing running backs. They have allowed a RB to gain at least 25 receiving yards in 9 of their 11 games this season. They were struggling against pass-catching RBs even before star LB Matt Milano got hurt, and now they are missing their best coverage LB.
We also like the over on Swift’s receptions, which is set at 2.5 with equal -115 odds. He has at least 3 receptions in 6 of his 10 games this season. However, we ultimately chose the yards this time because of the possibility that he could hit this on just 1 play, even if he only ends up with 2 receptions. That is exactly what happened 3 weeks ago against Dallas.
We like both the receptions and the yards over for Swift this week, but over 15.5 receiving yards is our favorite prop bet in this game.
Dalton Kincaid over 49.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
We want to get some action on Kincaid in this game. After a slow start, the rookie 1st-round pick has been red-hot over the last 5 games, which has coincided with the Bills’ starting TE Dawson Knox getting injured in week 7. Since that game, Kincaid is averaging 6.8 receptions on 7.8 targets for 63.6 receiving yards per game.
The challenge was deciding which Dalton Kincaid prop bet we liked best between his receptions, yards, and anytime TD. We like all three bets, but ultimately feel most confident in the yardage. Kincaid has at least 50 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games and only missed that number by 4 yards last week against the Jets. The receptions prop is set at 5.5 with appealing +124 odds at DraftKings, but that is a high number to clear. He does have at least 5 receptions in each of his last 5 games and at least 6 in 3 of them, but it is still a lot to expect 6+ catches.
In addition to Kincaid’s hot stretch, the other reason we like this prop bet is the matchup. The Eagles have historically struggled against tight ends because their organizational philosophy deprioritizes safeties and linebackers, the positions most often matching up with tight ends. This season has been no exception, as they are allowing 5 receptions and 48.2 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Both of those marks fall in the bottom half of the league.
The Eagles did do a good job of slowing down Travis Kelce last week, holding him to just 44 receiving yards on 7 catches. But it took them double-teaming him on almost every play (along with an uncharacteristic drop) to keep him contained. Three other tight ends – Hunter Henry, T.J. Hockenson and Jake Ferguson – all have gained over 50 receiving yards against the Eagles, and Logan Thomas gained 40+ yards twice.
We also like Kincaid’s anytime TD odds, which are +175 at DraftKings as of this writing. The Eagles’ 6 TDs allowed to tight ends is tied for the most in the league. But the over on his yards is our favorite Kincaid prop bet in this game.
Stefon Diggs over 6.5 receptions (+110 at DraftKings)
We love to find prop bets at plus money, and Diggs over 6.5 receptions is our favorite one in this game. That’s a huge number to clear, and one that Diggs has not hit in 3 straight games, but that’s part of the reason for the appealing odds. Diggs also has faced 2 of the best shutdown corners in the league the last 2 weeks – Patrick Surtain II and Sauce Gardner – so it’s not very surprising he has had back-to-back down games.
Diggs had at least 7 receptions in 6 of his first 8 games to start the season and is averaging exactly 7.0 on the season, 10th most in the league. He also gets a great matchup against an Eagles defense that has struggled against the pass this season. Their passing defense is 19th in DVOA and has allowed the 5th most yards per game. They have allowed at least 1 opposing WR to go over their receptions prop in every game this season, and 7 different WRs have at least 8 receptions against them.
The Eagles like to play off coverage to avoid getting beat deep, even if that means they get picked apart on underneath routes. Diggs should have those plays available to him all game, which will lead to plenty of opportunities to rack up catches. We also expect the Bills to make an effort to get Diggs involved early on in this game after his consecutive disappointing games.
For all those reasons, this prop bet at plus money is a great value.