Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (10/22/23)
Contents
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Foxborough as a home game for the Patriots. The Bills are currently a -8.5 favorite and -420 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40.5. Read on for more Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots best bets and predictions as the Bills look to cover the spread as a Wong teaser piece.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Prediction & Best Bet
The Bills are now back in their normal routine and once again come in as a massive favorite against a reeling Patriots squad. The Patriots are not just reeling, but they are potentially at an all-time low as they currently rank near dead last in overall DVOA and Off DVOA. Fresh off a loss to the Raiders, now needing to find answers in a pinch against one of the best units in the league.
Worse yet for the Patriots, their defense has immediately shown to be struggling since the injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez. That left them void of two productive play makers at two levels of the defense, losing out on an elite pass rusher and coverage player on the back end. Since the injuries their Pressure Rate and Def Pass metrics have steadily slipped down the board.
That spells disaster against Josh Allen who thrives in a clean pocket. Featuring one of the best arms in football, only hampered by his decision making when under pressure. Without the pressure, Allen is more than capable of carving up an injury riddled defense as he connects with the likes of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in stride. The Bills currently rank third across the board in Pass DVOA, Pass EPA, and Pass Success Rate.
On the other end, the Bills defense is in a position to make Mac Jones’ day a living nightmare. The Patriots have one of the worst offensive lines in football while the Bills are number one in generating pressure with a low dose of the blitz. By just collapsing the pocket with their front four, the Bills can drop the rest back and cancel out passing lanes. Mac Jones already struggles under pressure, now having to throw into tight windows which will create an abundance of turnover worthy plays.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Prediction & Best Bet: Bills -2.5 Wong Teaser Piece
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds
Even after a sloppy primetime performance against the Giants, oddsmakers still have this as the Bills game to lose as they opened them as a -8.5 favorite. That’s a sharp difference from the lookahead line, originally opening at -3.5. Bettors have leaned towards the Bills favor as well, backing them up to -9 in some shops. With the Bills having a tendency to boom or bust, taking the security of -2.5 in a Wong teaser serves as a safer option when backing Buffalo in this road spot.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 45.5. Bettors believe that number opened way too high, backing the under down to as low as 40.5 as of writing. While the Patriots offense is expected to be a non-factor, it will be up to the Bills to decide the outcome of the total as they can go from looking like an elite unit to very underwhelming at a moment’s notice.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Key Injuries
While the Bills mainly have Josh Allen listed on their injury report, the Patriots are dealing with questionable tags across their whole offensive line and starting skill positions.
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Key Matchups
Can the Bills slow down dual threat running back Rhamondre Stevenson?
Rhamondre Stevenson Vs. Bills Second Level
Not many things have gone right for the Patriots offense, a unit that ranks near dead last across the board in EPA and DVOA. One bright spot that they have had is their dual threat running back Rhamondre Stevenson has fared slightly well in generating Success Rate on the ground.
All Rhamondre Stevenson touches vs the Raiders
10 Carries
46 Yards
1 TD5/6 Rec
24 Yards pic.twitter.com/icbHhTaUpn— Dynasty Nerds (@DynastyNerds) October 16, 2023
That helps put the Patriots offense in friendlier positions to gain on later downs, giving them a higher chance at moving the sticks. This makes an intriguing battle for the Bills defense, a unit that excels at limiting Rush Success Rate. This is especially vital to slow the Patriots down in the mid field as their Def Rush metrics start to dwindle as they get backed up into the red zone.
Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
QB: Josh Allen
RB1: James Cook
RB2: Latavius Murray
LWR: Stefon Diggs
RWR: Gabe Davis
SWR: Deonte Harty
TE1: Dawson Knox
New England Patriots Depth Chart
QB: Mac Jones
RB1: Rhamondre Stevenson
RB2: Ezekiel Elliott
LWR: Juju Smith-Schuster
RWR: DeVante Parker
SWR: Kendrick Bourne
TE1: Hunter Henry
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