Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots NFL Player Props & Picks (10/22/23)
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The Buffalo Bills travel to face the New England Patriots this Sunday afternoon (10/22/23). Get Bills vs. Patriots player prop best bets and odds, including Mac Jones, Gabe Davis, and Chad Ryland.
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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Picks
Which players will crush their props in the Bills vs. Patriots game?
Mac Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-125 Bet365)
To say that Mac Jones has struggled this season is a severe understatement. Of the 33 quarterbacks with at least 90 dropbacks, Jones ranks 32nd in turnover worthy play rate, 28th in interception percentage, and 27th in adjusted completion percentage (per PFF). He’s working with probably the worst pass-catcher room in the NFL, so Jones must routinely test tight windows due to a lack of separation.
Buffalo’s fearsome defense leads the NFL in sacks and percentage of opponent drives ending in a turnover, so they will crank the chaos meter to the max. Meanwhile, New England is 30th in pass blocking grade per PFF. Expect Jones to face heavy pressure all game, which significantly increases the chances of him making a mistake.
He needs to throw an interception about 55 percent of the time based on the odds. Jones has thrown a pick in five of six games (83 percent) to start the year.
Gabe Davis Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards (-120 DK)
Gabe Davis ranks third across the NFL with a 15.5-yard average depth of target, and the speedster owns the third most receptions of passes that traveled at least 20 yards through the air (per PFF, min. 25 targets). His deep threat abilities pair perfectly with Josh Allen’s cannon for an arm. The following is Davis’ longest reception in every game so far:
- 26 yards
- 40 yards
- 35 yards
- 34 yards
- 29 yards
- 9 yards
The only time he didn’t easily clear 19 yards was his matchup against New York last week. Davis now faces a Patriots defense that historically loves to take away the opponent’s top receiver. Head coach Bill Belichick will formulate a game plan around completely stopping Stefon Diggs, which leaves Gabe Davis room to run. Cornerback Christian Gonzales’ season-ending injury also makes Davis’ life easier too, whether directly or indirectly.
He needs to record a 19-yard reception about 54 percent of the time.
Chad Ryland Under 1.5 PAT Made (-110 DK)
This player prop is essentially betting that New England will not score two touchdowns.
New England’s horrendous offense ranks dead last in expected points added (EPA) per play, percentage of offensive drives ending in an offensive score, and 27th in yards per offensive play. Their receivers cannot get open, and the offensive line isn’t winning their pass protection or run block snaps. Mac Jones needs an above average environment to be productive, and it’s simply not the case here.
On the other hand, Buffalo’s defense is rock-solid. No team generates more sacks or turnovers, and they rank third in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score. Injuries have reduced their overall impact, but this defense remains elite.
Ryland needs to convert two extra points about 52 percent of the time.
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