Predictions for Astros vs. Blue Jays: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 4

Thursday’s game that pits the Houston Astros (44-42) versus the Toronto Blue Jays (39-47) at Rogers Centre is expected to be a close matchup based on our computer prediction, which projects a final score of 6-5 in favor of the Astros. First pitch is at 1:07 PM ET on July 4.

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Astros vs. Blue Jays Matchup Info

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Astros vs. Blue Jays Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Astros 6, Blue Jays 5
  • Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs

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Astros vs. Blue Jays Betting Lines

Astros vs Blue Jays Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Astros -112 -108 8.5 -102 -118

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Astros Betting Insights

  • Houston has been the favorite in 62 games this season, and has come away with the win 32 times (51.6%) in those contests.
  • This season, the Astros have come away with a win 32 times in 62 chances when named as a favorite of at least -112 or shorter on the moneyline.
  • Houston and its opponents have gone over in 33 of 86 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Astros went 7-1 across the eight games in which they were favored on the moneyline in their past 15 matchups.
  • In its past 15 outings — all had a set run total — Houston and its opponents combined to go over the total seven times.

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • Toronto has won nine of the 34 games it was the underdog on the moneyline this season (26.5%).
  • The Blue Jays are 9-25 (winning just 26.5% of their games) when playing as a moneyline underdog of -108 or longer.
  • Toronto has had an over/under set by bookmakers 86 times, and it has combined with opponents to go over the total in 41 of those games (41-42-3).
  • The Blue Jays have played as underdogs in 10 of their past 15 games and won three of those contests.
  • In its past 15 games with a total, Toronto and its opponents are 11-3-1 when it comes to hitting the over.

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Astros vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

Astros’ Starting Pitcher: Framber Valdez

  • The 30-year-old has an ERA of 3.80 and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings, with a batting average against of .252 in 14 games this season.
  • Framber Valdez’s team has a record of 5-6 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Valdez’s team has won seven of his 14 starts.
  • Games started by Valdez have a 4-9-1 record at hitting the over this season.

Blue Jays’ Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt

  • The 35-year-old has amassed a 3.24 ERA and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings across 17 games this season, while giving up a batting average of .259 to opposing batters.
  • The Blue Jays have been the moneyline underdog in nine of Bassitt’s starts this season, and they went 2-7 in those games.
  • Bassitt’s team has a 7-10 record in his starts this season.
  • Bassitt’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in seven of 17 contests.

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Astros’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 44-42
Home 24-19
Road 20-23
One-Run Games 5-15
Scoring 5+ Runs 34-5

Blue Jays’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 39-47
Home 21-23
Road 18-24
One-Run Games 9-14
Scoring 5+ Runs 31-6

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