Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/9/22)
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I think the Broncos may have thrown their Week 1 game against Boise State. Because they looked horrific in a 34-17 loss to Oregon State. It was a pathetic start for a team that has high hopes with 17 returning starters.
New Mexico might be one of the worst teams in the FBS. However, there’s a chance they might be worth a look here. They may have only beaten FCS Maine, but they did so in a 41-0 rout where they showed life with a triple-option look on offense.
Read on for our Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos odds, picks, and predictions.
Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos
The line has held steady at Boise State -17, but the smart money is on New Mexico. At time of writing, the Lobos are currently getting less than 50% of the tickets but close to 70% of the handle.
The under has taken all the money, and the line has taken some sharp movement. However, the number has held steady at 47. I would certainly look towards the under if New Mexico continues with a rush-heavy approach.
Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos Prediction & Pick
Boise State was lifeless on offense. They finished with just a 35% Success Rate on Standard Downs and managed only 10 points on five drives past Oregon State’s 40-yard line. Oregon State also lived in the backfield, producing seven tackles for loss.
Maybe it’s because Hank Bachmeier is just not that good. I’ve never been high on him, although he put together a good season last year. He tossed two early picks in this game and was immediately benched. With Bachmeier in the game, Boise State produced a 17% Success Rate on Passing Downs.
There’s not a lot to glean from New Mexico’s dominant win over an FCS squad, but I did pick up something: Danny Gonzales’ switch to a zone triple-option offense with Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick might work. Kendrick is athletic enough for this offense to work, and they should be able to effectively move the ball more in early downs.
If that’s the case, they will eat up the clock on offense, and that will give them a big advantage ATS as underdogs. The pace of every game is going to be so slow that covering big numbers becomes easy.
Moreover, the defense looked half-decent. They did return seven starters and eight of the top-10 tacklers, so maybe we’re undervaluing the Lobos’ defense slightly.
For the UNM defense (the strength of the Lobos):
7 returning starters (big loss is DE Joey Noble).
DL Jake Saltonstall, LBs Reco Hannah, Ray Leutele; DBs Tavian Combs, Ronald Wilson, Jerrick Reed II, Donte Martin.— Steve Virgen (@SteveVirgen) August 29, 2022
Boise State should have more success against New Mexico than against Oregon State, but we need to downgrade their offense significantly. This game should be more of a rock fight than a blowout.
If we get an extremely slow game script – and the money on the under makes me think we will – the Lobos should cover this number.
Boise State Broncos vs New Mexico Lobos Key Matchups
Key Matchup No. 1: Hank Bachmeier vs Jerrick Reed
New Mexico Safety Jerrick Reed leads a New Mexico secondary which is the strength of this team. Reed led the team in tackles last season while producing a whopping 7 PBUs. He only picked up one interception, but perhaps that number will increase with how much action he’s getting.
Reed performed just as well in 2020.
In 2020 S Jerrick Reed II became the first Lobo DB to be named First Team All-MWC since Glover Quin in 2008. Quin would go on to be a Pro Bowl S for the Detroit Lions and had a 10 year NFL career. Reed II had 4 INT, 3 pass break ups, and recovered a fumble in 7 games. pic.twitter.com/aRbJ71M5tZ
— Lobo Football History (@LoboFBHistory) February 10, 2021
Bachmeier needs to prove he’s worthy of this job. If he can’t carve up the New Mexico defense, he might lose his job. With the Lobos’ weak front seven, he’ll have plenty of time, but he’ll have to out-duel Reed and an underrated secondary.
