Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes (5/10/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
The Boston Bruins have battled back from death. Down 2-0 in the series after two pathetic showings, the Perfection Line showed up and have now evened this series.
But both teams held home ice, and the Carolina Hurricanes still have the upper hand in this series.
Carolina should be confident, but I imagine the fans are shaking after Sunday’s loss. The Bruins dominated that game and showed why this series could go seven.
There’s nothing like playoff hockey, and there’s nothing like Game 7. Are we destined for one here?
That starts with this Game 5, and Carolina is a moderate favorite. But can we get some value with the underdog Bruins?
Let’s dive into the betting odds and my prediction for this enormous Game 5 matchup.
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes Betting Odds
The big question is if the Bruins provide value at +120, which is around where Boston stands in the betting market.
The Bruins went just 9-14 this season as an underdog, and a $100 bettor would be down a little over $330 if they bet every one of those games.
That doesn’t automatically disqualify betting Boston, but it’s something to keep in mind for this matchup.
Overs continue to be money in the playoffs. All four of these games have gone over the listed total but the line continues not to budge from 5.5. That’s something to keep an eye on moving forward.
Boston Bruins Analysis
The Bruins just dominated back in North Boston.
Money Puck’s post-game simulations give the Bruins a 75% postgame win expectancy. And the site’s Expected Goals formula says the Bruins won 4.11 to 2.32. It was a big-time performance from a team – and city – that needed it in a must-win game.
And who else showed up but the Perfection Line. Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Brad Marchand combined for 10 points and a +7 in the last performance. The three simply overpowered Carolina’s defense.
Image credit: Money Puck
But can the Bruins figure out how to win on the road in this one?
I think yes. Jeremy Swayman is just a better goalie than Linus Ullmark, and his presence in the net has changed the betting outlook of this series. He posted positive Goals Saved Above Expected marks in both wins, unlike Ullmark in the two losses.
Carolina Hurricanes Analysis
The two losses in Boston were really on the offense, which couldn’t produce at the same level it did in Carolina.
After netting 10 goals over two games in the Carolinas, the ‘Canes came back with just four goals over the next two games. They also got way out-shot in both opportunities to effectively ice this series.
That’s a problem. The Hurricanes were one of the NHL’s most potent offenses this season, leading the league in Expected Goal Percentage (56.16%) and finishing third in Expected Goals Scored (290.18).
Meanwhile, Antti Raanta was mediocre over the past two games. He posted -0.57 Goals Saved Above Expected in Game 4 and was negative in Game 3 as well.
However, I can’t blame Raanta. The Bruins’ top guys were unbelievable and overpowering, while the Hurricanes’ top guys faltered. The difference was on the ice, not in the net.
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes Picks & Prediction
My pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML (-140 at Caesars), Over 5.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
I think this series is just going to be back-and-forth. Back in the Carolinas, I’m going to play the zig-zag theory and take the ‘Canes to reclaim the advantage in this now Best-of-3 series.
Meanwhile, I can’t help but continue to bet overs. The Hurricanes and Bruins both have enough firepower to net five or more goals every night, and the goaltenders have looked relatively mediocre for my liking.
Again, just to reiterate, the home team has won every game and the over 5.5 has hit in every game.
If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes Starting Goalies & Line Combination
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