Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes (5/4/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
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The Carolina Hurricanes massacred the Boston Bruins in Game 1, going up 2-0 quickly and finishing the game with a decisive 5-1 victory.
The Bruins didn’t look helpless, and actually out-shot the Hurricanes for the first half of the game. But in the end, the Boston Power Play unit looked helpless on the road and the Hurricanes capitalized.
I’m wondering if we’ll have either starting goalie back for Game 2. Both backups were in for Game 1, but Carolina’s Antti Ranta bested Boston’s Linus Ullmark (and the empty net, which allowed one goal on one shot).
I still think this will be a back-and-forth series. So, can the Bruins even the series here?
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes Betting Odds
Predictably, the Hurricanes have opened as moderate home favorites again. Is -120 too cheap for a team that just blew out the opposition?
Well, maybe not. According to Money Puck’s Expected Goals Scored formula, the Hurricanes only outscored the Bruins 2.69 to 2.23. After a thousand simulations of the game, the Bruins should still win about 49.8% of the time.
Remember, the Bruins put up 36 shots to the Hurricanes’ 25. So, there is reason to believe the Bruins could’ve put a few more home.
Boston Bruins Analysis
But in three Power Play opportunities, the Bruin front line looked in complete disarray. On one PP opportunity, they didn’t get a single shot off.
Meanwhile, their backup goalie Linus Ullmark wasn’t all too impressive. He finished with -1.95 Goals Saved Above Expected, which basically sunk the Bruins’ chances of winning Game 1. The Bruins need Swayman back, as soon as possible.
However, from what I understand Ullmark will be in goal for Game 2. Yikes.
Now, this does not spell disaster for Boston. They were competitive, and they were especially competitive in the first period. But things didn’t swing their way. Sometimes that just happens in hockey.
The Bruins Penalty Kill unit did the job. Boston was the best PK unit in the NHL all season, ranking first in most actual and expected statistics. They’ll need to continue to hold their own and hope the front line gets going.
That superstar lineup of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Brad Marchand was relatively quiet. While they did get up a combined 11 shots on goal, the only one that went in came from Taylor Hall assisted by Charlie McAvoy and Erik Haula.
Carolina Hurricanes Analysis
As mentioned, Carolina overperformed their expected stats. And they were relatively ineffective at getting shots on the net, with only Sebastian Aho managing more than three attempts on Ullmark.
Image credit: Money Puck
But Raanta picked up the slack, posting a 1.23 Goals Saved Above Expected on a whopping 35 saves. To see 36 shots on net with over 70% of those being unblocked and allowing just one goal is a pretty phenomenal performance.
The Hurricane faithful are hoping he can perform similarly in Game 2, considering starter Frederik Anderson hasn’t even skated yet.
Carolina failed to score on the power play either but dominated in the faceoff circle, winning the faceoffs 37 to 28 and essentially negating Bergeron in the process.
Unless Ullmark comes out with another subpar performance, I’m a little worried for the Hurricanes. They’ll have to get a little lucky and hope Boston comes out flat in the second and third periods again.
That’s not entirely out of the question considering this game is in Carolina. But, I’d say it’s improbable that the Hurricanes coast to a 5-1 luck-induced victory.
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes Picks & Prediction
My pick: Boston Bruins ML (+100 at BetMGM)
This is a perfect bounce-back, zig-zag spot for this series.
The Bruins underperformed their expected statistics and feel slighted after a dominating 5-1 defeat. Ullmark must be absolutely pissed.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes overperformed their expected statistics and must feel real comfortable following a 5-1 win. That’s a dangerous spot to be in.
I’m expecting big days from the Bruins’ big three and for some of those extra shots to sneak past Raanta in Game 2.
This is going to be a back-and-forth series. So, let’s bet it like one.
Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes Starting Goalies & Line Combination
