Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 4: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (5/23/23)

The Boston Celtics (0-3) hope to avoid a sweep against the Miami Heat (3-0) on Tuesday night. Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Danilo Gallinari remain out, although Kevin Love is a new addition to the injury report. Fortunately for Miami, he’s probable. Can the Heat punch their ticket to the NBA Finals?

Check out below for Celtics vs Heat predictions, odds, trends, and starting lineups.

Boston Celtics vs. Heat Prediction

Prediction: Heat -1.5 & Heat Moneyline

Any potential sliver of confidence I could have had in the Celtics completely vanished in their Game 3 obliteration. Not only were they outcoached and outplayed, but Boston simply quit. The Heat visibly and ruthlessly broke their spirit. It was basketball’s version of Roberto Duran turning his back on Sugar Ray Leonard II and saying “no mas”.

Jimmy Butler is getting to his spots with ease, Adebayo’s facilitation lifts the offense, and their gravity is creating open shots for teammates. They have capitalized as Miami owns an otherworldly 51.9 FG% and 47.8 3PT%. Their ability to force turnovers is also providing them with easy transition opportunities and boosting the offense.

Meanwhile, Miami’s zone has completely befuddled Boston. The Celtics can’t seem to crack the code and often drive into a wall of defenders ready to reach in and strip the ball. When Miami blitzes Jayson Tatum too, the Celtics are struggling to take advantage. Jaylen Brown especially hasn’t transformed off the dribble isolation opportunities into anything substantial.

Overall, which side seems ideal – a Jimmy Butler-led gritty team shooting the lights out and one game away from the Finals or a team with a locker room headache atmosphere that’s ice cold and quit in the previous game? I will take the Butler side every time, especially since Boston’s offense seems to have no answer for Coach Spoelstra’s defensive designs.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

The Heat are finally favored, although only slightly by 1.5 points. For Boston’s +100 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they must win here at least 51% of the time. The Celtics are now 0-5 ATS in their last five matchups versus the Heat, and the over is 5-1 in the last six matchups.

Betting Trends

  • Over is 11-3 in Celtics last 14 overall
  • Over is 22-7 in Heat last 29 overall
  • Celtics are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meeting

Key Matchups

Which teams will win the game-determining matchups?


The Heat’s disruptive defense churns out opponent turnovers because they anticipate well. Enter the Celtics, who constantly commit foolish turnovers and struggle with ball security. Miami’s offense has feasted on Boston turnovers, and it likely occurs again in Game 4. Both teams are who they are, so it would be shocking if Miami didn’t convincingly win this battle again.

Jaylen Brown

For the series, Brown is averaging 16.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 3.3 APG on an atrocious 37/10/50 shooting split. Plus, he’s committing 3.6 turnovers per game and playing mediocre defense. Perhaps Brown’s hand injury is more severe than people realized? Hopefully that’s the explanation; otherwise, it’s been a major red flag series. His dribbling issues are prominently on display, and the fact that he’s ice cold from three doesn’t help either. Brown has to punish Miami for trapping Tatum, and his inability to do so has completely hindered the offense. If Boston is going to win Game 4, it’s essential that Brown plays to his standards.

Boston Celtics Starting Lineup

PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford

Miami Heat Starting Lineups

PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Max Strus
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Boston Celtics Injuries: Danilo Gallinari (O)

Miami Heat Injuries: Tyler Herro (O), Kevin Love (P), Victor Oladipo (O)

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level.

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