Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles Odds, Picks, Predictions (9/24/22)

Florida State looks phenomenal.

The Seminoles are now 3-0 SU and ATS with road wins over LSU and Louisville. Jordan Travis left the game with an injury last week and Tate Rodemaker came in to save the day and beat Louisville in Kentucky.

But that’s the problem with this game. Florida State is going through injury issues. Jordan Travis looks like he is going to play, but nothing is certain yet. Three others may miss this game.

Boston College has NFL prospect Phil Jurkovec leading their offense, but the whole team has looked very poor so far. They suffered outright losses to Rutgers and Virginia Tech and only beat Maine by 21 as 32.5-point favorites.

So, can the Boston College football product bounce back and compete with a short-handed Florida State team? Or are the Eagles that bad?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles odds, picks, and predictions.

Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles

The line has barely budged off Florida State -17.5, moving slightly from -17 – which is a key number, however. However, the big money seems to be on Boston College despite the market moving against them.

The total hasn’t moved an inch at 48.5 and the market seems pretty split on that number. The total looks like a pass for me.

Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction & Pick

The football being played in Chestnut Hill is atrocious. The Eagles are spending more time in Passing Downs than any team in the FBS (45%) and 129th in Standard Downs Success Rate.

The offensive line is horrendous and the Eagles can’t run the ball. They’re averaging 1.7 yards per carry and that includes an FCS game.

So, Jurkovec attempts to save the day. Too bad the Eagles are 76th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades so the quarterback is always under pressure. Only two quarterbacks at the FBS level have had more dropbacks under pressure than Jurkovec.

Surprisingly, Jurkovec has made two Big Time Throws to zero Turnover Worthy Plays under pressure, even if he’s only completed 45% of his passes there.

Florida State isn’t going to bring a lot of pressure but they are talented in the secondary. There’s a chance Jurkovec can outplay Jammie Robinson and co. but it’s a big question mark.

However, Boston College is the play here. The health issues of Travis, linebacker Jared Verse, tackle Robert Scott Jr., and defensive tackle Fabien Lovett are too much to ignore. Moreover, the Seminoles are looking ahead to games against Wake Forest, NC State, and Clemson.

Mike Norvell wants to get out of this game with a win and without suffering more injuries. He won’t want to run up the score and Jurkovec gives the Eagles a chance to back-door any big spread (especially a 17.5-point one).

I make this spread closer to FSU -15 and SP+ makes this spread FSU -13.4. The value is with the Eagles.

Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles Key Matchups

Key Matchup No. 1: Phil Jurkovec vs Pressure

As mentioned, Jurkovec has been under pressure a lot this season. While he’s managed to avoid mistakes, he hasn’t been incredible with defenses in his face.

BC's Phil Jurkovec has the 4th-most pressure dropbacks (38) of any FBS QB this season. He's been pressured on 44.2% of his DBs.

Jurkovec had the 5th-most pressure DBs in 2020, but his comp %age under pressure was much higher that season (56.3%) than now (38.5%).

Stats: PFF

— Andy Backstrom (@andybackstrom) September 13, 2022

Florida State probably has a slightly worse defensive line than Rutgers has, and it’s close with Virginia Tech. But either way, Jurkovec will have to perform with pressure in his face for Boston College to compete with Florida State.

Jurkovec is an incredible talent, but it’s hard to play to your potential when your protection is this poor.

Key Matchup No. 2: Florida State vs Injuries

Keep an eye on the injury report. If there is more positive injury news for the Seminoles closer to kickoff, I may look to buy out of my Boston College position.

There is a huge drop-off in talent from Travis to Rodemaker, and Verse has been huge in the front seven for the ‘Noles. If those two don’t play or don’t perform to par, this game becomes very interesting.