Boston College vs. Syracuse kicks off this Friday (11/03/23) at 7:30 EST in Syracuse New York as a home game for the Orange. Get Boston College vs. Syracuse predictions and best bets below as our best bet is the under in what may be a defensive slugfest.
Boston College Vs. Syracuse Prediction
Even with a healthier Garrett Shrader under center for the Syracuse offense, they still clearly look broken as they were held to 10 points against Virginia Tech’s defense in their last game out. Depth is a major issue, and their starting unit is starting to show serious signs of fatigue. Boston College on the other hand has been a below average unit all around at this point of the season, solely relying on their defense just to remain competitive.
It’s almost hard to believe that this is a primetime game this Friday night as both units are going to struggle to move the ball down the field for various reasons. As a whole, both units rank below average in Success Rate with Boston College ranking 72nd and Syracuse ranking a lowly 94th. Better yet, both struggle at capitalizing when in scoring position as Boston College ranks 69th while Syracuse clocks in at 73rd.
Digging in deeper to those metrics, it looks a lot more favorable towards the under as neither has a leg up over the other. Especially when Boston College has the ball as they are the lone unit with above average metrics when on offense. More specifically involving their ground game, ranking an impressive 11th in Rush PPA, 44th in Rush Success Rate, and ninth in Rush Explosiveness. While that may seem like a leg up over Syracuse, the Orange front seven have excelled at limiting mid field big gains by clocking in at 33rd in Def Rush Explosiveness.
That bodes well for our under when BC has the ball as they may have to revert to a heavier dose of the pass to no avail. Boston College ranks 75th in Pass PPA and 107th in Pass Success Rate, indicating they fail to cut the distance to half on early downs and move the sticks on third down through the air. Those struggles are expected to continue against a Syracuse secondary who ranks above average across the board in Def Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness.
On the other end, Syracuse has looked as anemic as it gets when on offense. Shrader has looked like a shell of his former self, turning them one dimensional to the benefit of the defense. That plays right into BC’s hands as they have mightily struggled to defend the pass while their rush defense metrics tick up to league average. Should Shrader’s struggles continue, then BC’s second level will be in a good position to creep up and sell out in order to help stop the run.
Boston College Vs. Syracuse Prediction: Under 51.5
Boston College Vs. Syracuse Best Odds
Even amidst Syracuse recent struggles, oddsmakers still slightly lean toward their favor by setting them as a -3 favorite. That is a stark decrease from the lookahead line, once sitting at -7.5. Bettors believe -3 is still a tad too high, backing the Eagles down to as low as +2 in some shops as of writing.
As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a quick pace as they opened the number at 52.5. Bettors believe that number is a tad too high, backing the under down to 51. That comes as no surprise as both offenses have struggled to generate any sort of consistency while both defenses are in a position to negate each other’s strengths. Expect plenty of stalled out drives in the mid field.
Boston College Vs. Syracuse Key Matchups
How much of a factor will Havoc play in this game script?
Havoc Vs. Havoc Allowed
When placing a wager on the under, Havoc can either be your best friend or your worst enemy. This is in large part of where the Havoc happens, creating a massive swing towards the under if late in a drive or hurting your chances with a field flipping turnover.
Jobity with the sack!@JobityKevin
— Syracuse Football (@CuseFootball) October 14, 2023
Turnover plays will be worth monitoring as both teams tip on the far ends of the scale in both Havoc and Havoc Allowed. Boston College does a masterful job at protecting the ball by ranking 10th in Havoc Allowed while their defense clocks in at 117th in Havoc Created. As for Syracuse, they rank 128th in Havoc Allowed while disrupting plays at the 17th best rate in the nation.