Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays (4/26/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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The Boston Red Sox bats finally woke up. They had rallied late in the game Monday night to tie it up 2-2 with the vaunted Toronto Blue Jays. This could be a turning point.
Instead, Bo Bichette hit a grand slam and the rest was history. Boston drops to 7-10 on the young season while Toronto moves to 11-6 with a half-game lead in the division.
But it’s too early in the season to crown Toronto champions and put the done chain on the Red Sox. There’s too much baseball left to play.
That starts again Tuesday night as Nick Pivetta and the Sox take on Kevin Gausman and the Jays.
Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for the game.
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds
Pivetta has been bad. Gausman has been good.
The Red Sox haven’t been hitting. The Blue Jays are one of the best offenses in the league.
This line makes sense. But you have to wonder if getting the Red Sox at such big plus-money odds is worth a look.
Boston Red Sox Starting Lineup
CF Kikè Hernandez R
3B Rafael Devers L
SS Xander Bogaerts R
DH J.D. Martinez R
1B Bobby Dalbec R
2B Trevor Story R
LF Alex Verdugo L
C Christian Vazquez R
RF Christian Arroyo R
Boston Red Sox vs Kevin Gausman
The Red Sox are familiar with Gausman from his Baltimore days. But Boston hasn’t faced this version of Gausman.
The Giants transformed this aging pitcher and Gausman has imported his improvements north of the border.
Gausman pitched a career-high 192 innings with San Fran with a career-low 2.81 ERA. His season-long 10.64 K/9 was only trumped by his 11.92 K/9 in the 60-game shortened season prior.
He’s pitched six innings in all three of his 2022 starts and has done so with almost identical numbers.
The big improvement is his splitter, which Gausman has thrown more and more since 2015. Last year, it was one of the deadliest pitches in the league, holding batters to a .190 wOBA and providing a -23 Run-Value.
The Red Sox have gotten nothing going offensively, scoring more than two runs just once in the last five games. But Boston is hitting the ball hard (89mph avg. exit velocity) but those balls haven’t found the gaps. Their .279 wOBA is backed up by a .310 xwOBA, so some level of regression is coming.
It’s hard to see how that will come against Gausman. Just five days ago, Gausman walked into Fenway and struck out eight Red Sox over eight one-run innings.
Toronto Blue Jays Starting Lineup
CF George Springer R
SS Bo Bichette R
1B Vladimir Guerrero R
LF Lourdes Gurriel R
3B Matt Chapman R
RF Raimel Tapia L
DH Zack Collins L
C Alejandro Kirk R
2B Santiago Espinal R
Toronto Blue Jays vs Nick Pivetta
Entering the season, Pivetta was Boston’s X-factor. When he’s hot, Pivetta can be a legit No. 2 starter behind Nathan Eovaldi. His playoff performance last season was electric.
This year, I’m ready to name Tanner Houck the No. 2 starter and put Pivetta behind Michael Wacha.
Unfortunately, Houck can’t play in Toronto due to his unvaccinated status, so we’re stuck with PIvetta’s 10.33 ERA and 15.88 xERA.
Those numbers are not a joke. He’s pitched just 11 ⅔ innings over three starts while walking seven batters per nine innings and allowing three home runs per nine innings. It’s been an utter disaster.
He won’t get a break. Toronto is third in ISO (.169) while leading the league in home runs (22) and ranking top-10 in both OPS (.726) and wRC+ (110).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. already has five home runs and 12 RBIs with an OPS north of 1.050. He’s recorded a whopping 20 hits through the first 17 games. George Springer has a 141 OPS+, while both Matt Chapman and Bichette went yard Monday night.
Good luck, Nick.
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Prediction
My pick: Under 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Four straight games between the Red Sox and Blue Jays have gone under. I also think this line might be just slightly high.
Gausman will likely pitch a gem. Pivetta may struggle, but the Boston bullpen has been a pleasant surprise and has already shut down Toronto once in this series.
I think this is going for a 4-3 finish, and unders have been crazy hot in the early season.
It’s scary to bet an under with Toronto, but this is the right play. I am not playing it under 8.5, however.
