Bowling Green Vs. Ohio Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/22/22)

Both culprits of MACtion’s biggest surprises last week for vastly different reasons, Bowling Green travels to Ohio to battle it out in Tuesday’s double header. This won’t have nearly the same charm with Ohio’s stud quarterback out but will be a thrilling matchup nonetheless as this game has serious championship berth implications.

Bowling Green Vs. Ohio Odds

Opening at -10, Ohio quickly saw that spread shoot down to the key number of -7 in wake of star quarterback Kurtis Rourke getting injured in their last game out. While not confirmed if he will be back in time for the postseason, Ohio will need to rely on backup quarterback CJ Harris for the time being to get them to the MAC championship.

As for the total, this opened at 56.5 and quickly took money towards the under. Now sitting as low as 55.5 on some books, it will be intriguing to see how low this goes with bettors wondering how productive Ohio’s backup quarterback can be over the course of a full game. Should they go conservative and lean on the run, that only plays to our pick even better.

Bowling Green Vs. Ohio Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Under 56

If you managed to read my Ball State/Miami-OH piece, then you would already know I’m on that full game under. Well, now I am here to tell you I am on this under as well. A double header under for MACtion, what could go wrong.

The loss of star Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke can’t be overstated enough. He was absolutely electric this season and we will for sure see him at some point in the next level. Rourke threw for 3,256 yards, 25 touchdowns, and four interceptions while he led Ohio to first in the MAC at this point into the season.

After he went down? This offense takes on a whole new identity until Harris gets the green light to let it fly. Assuming they remain conservative and just try to escape with the win, we may get a heavier dose of the run featuring Sieh Bangura who has been productive in the backfield.

As for Bowling Green, the nation was pleasantly surprised as the offense exploded for a 42-35 win over Toledo in what was one of the more thrilling games of the season. It was especially surprising if you knew beforehand that they are one of the worst offensive units in football with near dead last ranks in Off Success Rate and Finishing Drives.

Bowling Green Vs. Ohio Key Matchups

Can Sieh Bangura shoulder the load of Ohio’s offense? Will Matt McDonald find continued offensive success en-route to an upset?

Sieh Bangura vs Bowling Green’s rush defense

Backup quarterback CJ Harris didn’t really wow anyone when he was thrusted into the spot when Rourke went down but he didn’t really have too as Ohio pulled away with the victory. He ended the game with 34 passing yards and 38 rushing yards with no touchdowns in either category.

While I expect Harris to let it fly a little more, we may also see a heavier dose of the run as Bangura has proven to be a continued success in the backfield. He was the main catalyst in their last game out with 148 yards on the ground and two touchdowns.

It will be an intriguing battle on the ground this time around as Bowling Green is actually above average in shutting down the run. The Falcons rank 39th in Def Rush Success Rate but struggled with rush explosiveness, leaving the door wide open for Sieh to potentially burst for a score.

Matt McDonald vs Ohio secondary

The offense may be underwhelming but that is hardly Bowling Green’s quarterback Matt McDonald’s fault. So far this season he has thrown for 2,422 yards, 21 touchdowns, and five interceptions. 

His offensive line grades out as one of the worst in the nation, allowing 29 sacks and generating little to no push back on the line. Without protection, Bowling Green is unable to let plays develop and result in stalled out drives off of bad quality looks.

After exploding last game out in a high scoring affair, it will be interesting to see if they can find success again with potentially more opportunities against a hobbled Ohio team. Ohio currently ranks 118th in Def Pass Play Success Rate.

Verdict

Expect a defensive affair with Rourke out and Bowling Green unproven to catch lightning in a bottle two games in a row in a big spot with MAC championship implications on the line.