Bowling Green vs. Toledo Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/15/22)
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We’re back with midweek MACtion on Tuesday night, and this slate features plenty of intriguing matchups to kick off Week 12. You can find matchup previews for every MAC game on our site as well as further coverage on our YouTube channel. This matchup preview will include betting odds and picks for the game between Bowling Green and Toledo. Let’s get to work.
Bowling Green Falcons Vs. Toledo Rockets Odds
Last week, the Toledo betting odds featured plenty of movement as sportsbooks reacted to the speculation surrounding the status of quarterback DeQuan Finn. While Finn wound up playing, Toledo didn’t cover the initial opening number of 16.5 points, let alone the 11.5-point mark. Is that instructive of what we should expect on Tuesday night?
The over-under for this game is set at 50 points, and I can tell you that the over is taking the bulk of public money. However, I’d be less bullish on the over here given Bowling Green’s offensive struggles.
Bowling Green Falcons Vs. Toledo Rockets Prediction & Pick
It’s all about DeQuan Finn. The Toledo quarterback is an electric passer and runner, and he constantly puts defenses in a bind. Finn returned from a brief injury absence last week and threw for a season-high 301 yards and three touchdowns. When he faced Bowling Green last season, he had a combined 300 passing and rushing yards along with five total touchdowns.
Bowling Green simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up. They rank just 127th in rushing EPA, and that puts them behind the sticks constantly. As a result, they rank outside the top 100 in offensive success rate and finishing drives. Matt McDonald has had a strong season with 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions, but turnovers and overall inefficiency have plagued this offense.
This game doesn’t provide my highest-confidence betting opportunity for this week’s MACtion slate, but all of the matchup angles point to Toledo being able to run away with it. The Falcons have been held under 20 points in four of their last five games, and now they’re facing perhaps the best defense in the MAC.
Bowling Green Falcons Vs. Toledo Rockets Key Matchups
Bowling Green run game vs. Toledo run defense
The Falcons have to get more out of their run game. Last week, eight different players had a rushing attempt. The end result was pathetic as Bowling Green compiled 65 rushing yards on 38 attempts, which was a 1.7 YPC rate. That result came against a Kent State defense that’s ranked 118th in run defense EPA.
Bowling Green’s offensive line hasn’t done it any favors as they rank outside the top 100 in average line yards in stuff rate. Their running backs get stopped at the line of scrimmage far too frequently, and this week, they’re facing a Toledo defense that ranks 44th in average line yards and 75th in rushing EPA allowed.
Matt McDonald is having a strong season, and he’s PFF’s third-ranked MAC quarterback behind only Kurtis Rourke and Collin Schlee. Despite this, the Falcons are ranked third-worst in yards per game and fourth-worst in points per game in the MAC. Unless they can start running the ball effectively, I don’t expect that to change.
DeQuan Finn vs. Bowling Green pass rush
If there’s one weakness in DeQuan Finn’s game, it’s that his stats fall across the board when he’s under pressure. Of course, that’s true of all quarterbacks, but the Falcons will need to find a way to put pressure on him if they want to have defensive success in this game. Finn’s completion rate drops from 66% to 42.3% per PFF.
Bowling Green ranks 19th in PFF’s pass rush grades and 16th in sack rate, so they should have some success creating pressure. Toledo’s offensive line is fairly average across the board, and they rank just 84th in PFF’s pass-blocking grades and 69th in sack rate allowed, so the Falcons could have success in this respect.
Karl Brooks is Bowling Green’s leading pass rusher, and he will have some intrigue from NFL teams in the upcoming draft. Brooks has a team-leading 44 total pressures that have resulted in nine sacks. He’s joined by Demetrius Hardamon, who has 20 pressures and seven sacks, in a dynamic edge tandem.
DEFENSE!!!
Karl Brooks' strip sack is picked up by Demetrius Hardamon who coasts 45 yards for a HUGE BG Touchdown.
BGSU 27
CMU 109:49 | 4 QT pic.twitter.com/OaFaFPlgOV
— BGSU Football (@BG_Football) October 22, 2022
That pass rush didn’t shine last week as Kent State’s Collin Schlee still finished with 214 passing yards and three touchdowns, but it will be pivotal if the Falcons are to slow down DeQuan Finn at all. If we get Tucker Gleason in the second half with Toledo nursing a lead, it would be even more important for a potential backdoor cover as he’s far less mobile than Finn.
