Predictions for Brewers vs. Pirates: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 11

Thursday’s game at American Family Field has the Milwaukee Brewers (54-39) squaring off against the Pittsburgh Pirates (44-48) at 2:10 PM. Our computer prediction projects a 5-4 victory for the Brewers, who are a slight favorite based on our model.

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Brewers vs. Pirates Matchup Info

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Brewers vs. Pirates Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Brewers 5, Pirates 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs

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Brewers vs. Pirates Betting Lines

Brewers vs Pirates Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Brewers -161 +136 8.5 -115 -105

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Brewers Betting Insights

  • Milwaukee has come away with 31 wins in the 50 contests it has been listed as the favorite in this season.
  • The Brewers have a win-loss record of 12-3 when favored by -161 or better by sportsbooks this year.
  • Milwaukee’s games have gone over the total in 50 of 93 opportunities.
  • The Brewers had a 6-4 record in the 10 games they were a moneyline favorite over their last 15 matchups.
  • In its past 15 outings (all had set totals), Milwaukee combined with its opponents to go over the total eight times.

Pirates Betting Insights

  • Pittsburgh has won 23 of the 51 games it was the underdog on the moneyline this season (45.1%).
  • When they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +136 or longer, the Pirates have a 4-8 record (winning just 33.3% of their games).
  • Pittsburgh has combined with opponents to hit the over on the total 43 times this season for a 43-45-4 record against the over/under.
  • In 11 games as underdogs in their past 15 matchups, the Pirates have a record of 4-7.
  • Pittsburgh and its opponents have combined to hit the over eight times in its past 15 games with a total.

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Brewers vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

Brewers’ Starting Pitcher: Aaron Civale

  • The 29-year-old has pitched in 18 games this season with an ERA of 5.18, a 3.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.391.
  • Aaron Civale’s team has won 44.4% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (4-5).
  • Civale’s team has won five of his 18 starts.
  • In games Civale has started this season, the teams are 11-7-0 at hitting the over.

Pirates’ Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes

  • The 22-year-old has amassed an ERA of 2.12, with 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 10 games this season. Opponents are batting .221 against him.
  • The Pirates were the moneyline underdog for one Paul Skenes start this season — they lost.
  • In Skenes’ 10 starts, his team is 7-3.
  • Skenes has had 10 starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and six of those matchups hit the over.

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Brewers’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 54-39
Home 28-14
Road 26-25
One-Run Games 15-14
Scoring 5+ Runs 36-9

Pirates’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 44-48
Home 22-24
Road 22-24
One-Run Games 15-15
Scoring 5+ Runs 28-6

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