Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers kicks off this Sunday at 8:20pm EST in Santa Clara California as a home game for the 49ers. The Cowboys are currently a +4 underdog and -184 on the moneyline while the total is set at 45. Brock Purdy has continued to thrive in this offense but now faces his toughest defensive test yet against the Dallas Cowboys.
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Brock Purdy has played about as perfect as you can ask out of him as he has started the season throwing for 1,019 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. All he does is win, leading the 49ers to a perfect 4-0 record. The issue is that they have had a relatively easy schedule, now needing to find success against the best defense in football per DVOA. It won’t be pretty, but it will make for an intriguing game to watch for our Sunday night viewing pleasure.
Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Interceptions
If there was ever a time for Purdy to throw his first interception of the season, then it would be in this one. The massive difference in quality of defense is going to be far better than he has faced this year, being more prone than ever to make a mistake.
The Dallas defensive success comes from their ability to bully opposing offensive lines, getting a push back from their front four while dropping back the rest. This keeps coverage tight while also forcing opposing quarterbacks into uncomfortable positions. This may force Purdy into potentially forcing an ill-advised throw in a collapsing pocket or trying to make a play on the run. Both playing towards a potential disastrous result in our favor.
Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Correlating the previously mentioned prop with this one, the 49ers pass attack may sputter throughout the contest. Especially if the weak interior offensive line collapses to the Cowboys pressure, bouncing Purdy out to the sides.
Four touchdowns for Christian McCaffery 🔥
— NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) October 1, 2023
To counteract this, we may see the 49ers revert to a heavier dose of their ground game. Especially since the Cowboys defensive metrics dip down when defending the run, ranking 12th in Def Rush DVOA and 27th in Def Rush Success Rate. They routinely give up small chunks at a time, giving Christian McCaffery and company room to work with when they hit the trenches.
Points may come at a premium, meaning the 49ers will need to capitalize on every scoring opportunity that they get. The ground game serves as the safer option, potentially limiting the number of passing attempts near the end zone.