Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Player Props & Picks (12/10/23)

Get Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers player prop picks & odds for the (12/10/23) matchup.

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Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Picks

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers kicks off this Sunday at 4:25pm EST in Los Angeles California as a home game for the Chargers. The Broncos are currently a +3 underdog and +130 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44. Expect Russell Wilson and Javonte Williams to bounce back while Austin Ekeler continues to struggle, all giving value as player props for this Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers matchup.

Javonte Williams Over 60.5 Rushing Yards

Williams saw his rush attempts limited in his last game out against the Houston Texans, but that was mainly due to game script as the Broncos played from behind for a majority of the contest. Their turnover luck has finally swung in the other direction after running as one of the luckiest units in the NFL with Russell Wilson throwing three interceptions.

That means we may see a heavier dose of the run until Wilson rounds back into form. That directly plays towards Javonte’s over in rushing yards as more attempts means a higher chance of him cashing this prop. Especially when it is against one of the worst front sevens in football as the Chargers rush defense ranks 22nd in Def Rush DVOA, 23rd in Def Rush Success Rate and 23rd in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

Even as a +3 underdog, the Broncos are in a good position to bounce back and take control for a majority of this contest. That means that they may abuse the run late in the game to the benefit of Javonte, bleeding out the clock and pull away with the win. For a full game breakdown, you can read it here.

Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown

Not only will Javonte be heavily featured in the mid field, but the Broncos may lean on him often when in scoring position as well. This was a troublesome area for Russell Wilson late against the Texans as he ended the game with a back breaking interception that sealed the Texans win.

Touchdown Javonte Williams! The Broncos (+300 ML) take a 6-point lead pic.twitter.com/Sr1R2uUPrD

— SuperBook Sports (@SuperBookSports) November 14, 2023

The Chargers coverage may be awful, but they get the benefit of being able to stretch out in a shortened field when backed up in the red zone. That means extra bodies stretched out across the end zone, shadowing throwing lanes and increasing the potential for turnover worthy plays through the air.

That leaves the Broncos better off pounding the rock on the ground, minimizing turnover worthy plays and potentially capitalizing on their scoring opportunities against a weak Chargers rush defense. As always, it’s important to have as many books as possible in order to line shop as this prop varies anywhere between -110 and +125.

Russell Wilson Under 0.5 Interception

Russell Wilson’s turnaround this year has been nothing short of remarkable, playing as one of the best quarterbacks in the league per PPF Quarterback Grade. A big reason for his turnaround has been his increase in touchdowns, and more importantly his decrease in interceptions. So far this year Wilson has thrown for 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

While the turnover luck finally swung against them after a three-interception performance, Wilson is in a great position to throw for a clean sheet against a weak Chargers secondary. A secondary that ranks a lowly 27th in Def Pass DVOA, 26th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 23rd in Def Pass EPA. Better yet, his troubles against the blitz will be negated as the Chargers as a whole ranks 18th in Pressure Rate.

Austin Ekeler Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

What originally seemed as just a slump has now turned into a potential reality as Austin Ekeler’s struggles have continued. A shocking sight to see as Ekeler was once one of the best running backs in football, now looking like a shell of his former self. He has yet to elevate their rush metrics since returning from injury, leading the Chargers rush attack to lowly ranks of 25th in Rush DVOA, 32nd in Rush Success Rate, and 27th in Rush EPA.

While the Broncos defensive metrics still look putrid, it’s worth remembering that they are heavily skewed from their early season performance. They were once on pace to be the worst defense in the history of the NFL per DVOA before drastically turning it around and moving up to league average. Factor in their scheme revolving around anchoring their linebackers in place and Ekeler will find himself with crowded running lanes when trying to get to the second level of the defense.

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