Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (10/12/23)

The Denver Broncos battle the Kansas City Chiefs in Thursday Night Football (10/12/23). Get Broncos vs. Chiefs First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday night’s game.

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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which players will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Broncos vs. Chiefs game?

Isiah Pacheco First TD (+600 BMGM) 

This Broncos defense is exceptionally bad, as they rank 31st in opponent rush expected points added per play and dead last in opponent dropback expected points added per play. Denver is allowing a league worst 5.9 yards per rush and sits 31st in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score. In other words, expect Patrick Mahomes and company to score faster than the speed of light. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s elite defense is allowing the fifth lowest percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive score. Fade the Broncos completely here! 

Pacheco ranks seventh across the NFL in both red zone carries and inside the five-yard-line carries. In each of the last three games, Pacheco has scored a touchdown and notched at least 15 carries. Given his volume, matchup, and odds, Pacheco is a home run play here. He must score the first touchdown about 14 percent of the time for the bet to hold a positive expected value. 

Rashee Rice First TD (+1400 FD) 

Although his stats don’t scream productivity, the SMU rookie wide receiver has quickly earned Patrick Mahomes’ trust. Rice ranks second on the Chiefs in target share, and his eight red zone targets ties Travis Kelce for the most on the team (although Kelce missed a game). Rice’s offensive involvement continues to grow with every game, and it won’t be long before he establishes himself as the undisputed top receiver on the team. Considering Kelce is dealing with an ankle injury, Rice may see more action as a result. 

Denver has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL, so grabbing Kansas City’s second best pass-catcher at +1400 odds is incredible. He needs to score the first touchdown only about six percent of the time.

Travis Kelce First TD (+500 FD)

There’s no debate that Travis Kelce is the favorite to score first; he owns 35 touchdowns in his last 52 regular season games. If he’s anywhere close to healthy, then Kelce should shred this abysmal defense with ease and dominate the red zone. He suffered a non-contact ankle injury last game, although he managed to return to the game. Per Kansas City’s injury report, he didn’t practice Monday but turned in limited participation on Tuesday. It appears like Kelce will suit up and be somewhat effective, which makes his +500 odds impossible to turn down against Denver. He must score the first touchdown about 16 percent.

Courtland Sutton First Broncos TD (+550 BMGM)

Kansas City has given up only one rushing touchdown through five weeks, while Denver’s offense only possesses one rushing touchdown. Therefore, targeting Denver pass-catchers is the play here. 

Sutton paces the Broncos in target share, touchdowns, and red zone targets. With Jerry Jeudy still rounding into form, Sutton remains the top option for Russell Wilson. His 6’4”, 216 pound frame is exactly what’s needed to beat this stingy Chiefs secondary in the red zone, as he can beat tight coverage through jump balls.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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