Get Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions player prop picks & odds for the (12/16/23) matchup.
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Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Saturday at 8:15pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. The Broncos are currently a +4 underdog and +185 on the moneyline while the total is set at 48. Expect Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs to bounce back while Courtland Sutton and Russell Wilson continue to thrive, all giving value as player props for this Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown
It was the worst-case scenario for the Lions offense in their last contest against the Bears, having Jared Goff throw into the wind while the Bears front seven excels at stopping the run. That made the Lions offense look as underwhelming as possible, yet Gibbs was still able to find success as the Lions stud dual threat back.
Gibbs now finds himself in a much better position to succeed, facing a far less daunting defense as well as getting the benefit of running against a stretched-out Broncos back end. With Goff being back in a dome, his passing ability should round back into form which gives Gibbs more room to work with as the Broncos are forced to respect the pass attack.
Gibbs has also been seeing an uptick in red zone attempts, giving him a higher chance of cashing this prop as they near into scoring position. Expect Gibbs to exploit a weak Broncos front seven who ranks a lowly 31st in Def Rush DVOA, 27th in Def Rush Success Rate, 24th in Def Rush EPA, and 31st in Def Adjusted Line Yards, potentially punching one in either on the ground or through the air as a dual threat back.
Jared Goff Over 23.5 Pass Completions
The importance of Jared Goff being back in a dome for the Lions offensive potential cannot be overstated as the splits of when he is in a dome and outside in the wind is shocking. A near 10% decrease in accuracy, as well as a huge uptick in turnover worthy plays, have seriously hampered the offense as a whole when on the road outdoors.
Goff already throws a relatively weak ball, turning his spirals into ducks when throwing into the wind which lessens the quality of completion. Now back home, Goff should have no issue with connecting with his pass catchers as they exploit a weak Broncos secondary.
While they have improved from their historically bad start, the Broncos metrics still grade out at below average as they clock in at 20th in Def Pass DVOA, 21st in Def Pass Success Rate, and 20th in Def Pass EPA. Goff should also find himself in a clean pocket, as well as a wide-open middle of the field to throw at, as the Broncos clock in at seventh in Blitz Rate and 27th in Pressure Rate.
Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
After a shockingly bad offensive performance last year, Russell Wilson and company have drastically turned it around and have put together respectable offensive metrics. Coming into this game, the Broncos pass attack ranks 16th in Pass DVOA, 22nd in Pass Success Rate, and 20th in Pass EPA.
COURTLAND SUTTON HAS DONE IT AGAIN
— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
Not exactly dominant, but they are in as good a position as any to make another step forward as Wilson gets the opportunity to shred one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. After being covered up the first few games from their dominant front four, the Lions back-end struggles have been put on full blast as opposing offenses have had no issue exploiting their gaps in coverage while the front four deals with injuries.
Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown
With Russell Wilson and the Broncos pass attack being in a position to succeed, it only makes sense that his favorite target continues to thrive as well. Courtland Sutton has nearly half of the teams’ total touchdowns, using his massive frame to go up and get it as well as create separation as an impressive route runner.
He should face minimal pressure in coverage once again as the Lions secondary ranks a lowly 19th in Def Pass DVOA, 29th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 26th in Def Pass EPA. In what is expected to be a high scoring affair, as well as having the ability to move the ball down the field with ease, the Broncos should find themselves with plenty of scoring opportunities which increases the chance of this prop cashing.