Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills: Expert Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football (11/13/23)

By Noah Rosenstein | Nov 13, 2023, 8:56am

The Buffalo Bills (5-4) host the Denver Broncos (3-5) this week (11/13/2023) on Monday Night Football. The Bills are heavy favorites at -7 against the spread while the over/under is set at 46.5 points. This article recommends a Broncos vs. Bills Same Game Parlay featuring a spread pick, Javonte Williams, and Dalton Kincaid.

Broncos vs. Bills Same Game Parlay Picks

The Bills enter this game in the midst of a rough stretch, having lost 3 of their last 5 games. If the season ended today, they would not be making the playoffs in the AFC. Their main issues have been on defense, where they’ve suffered a few significant injuries.

The Broncos are on an upswing having won two games in a row including a huge upset over the Chiefs. The defense that allowed 70 points to Miami in week 3 is not the same defense today. They held the Chiefs to 19 and 9 points, respectively, in 2 of their last 3 games.

Let’s see where that leaves us when it comes to building a Broncos vs. Bills Same Game Parlay for Monday Night Football. We built our SGP on DraftKings, but we encourage you to always shop around for the best odds before you place any wagers.

Broncos +7.5 (-115)

We’re going to start our parlay by tailing the pick we recommended in our matchup preview, for largely the same reasons. These teams are trending in opposite directions right now, especially on defense. The Bills are 30th in defensive EPA over the last 5 weeks, while the Broncos are a much more respectable 16th over that same timeframe.

This line is being overly influenced by these teams’ early season results and the Bills’ reputation from the last several years as one of the powerhouse teams in the whole league. That is not the reality of the present version of these teams, which creates great value on the Broncos as more than touchdown underdogs, even on the road.

Javonte Williams over 55.5 rushing yards (-110)

Williams is starting to look like he’s back to full health after tearing his ACL last season. Before the Broncos’ week 9 bye week, Williams had 80+ rushing yards in back-to-back games and logged a hefty workload against the Chiefs, carrying the ball a whopping 27 times. That is a pretty good indication that Williams is back to full strength and that the Broncos are ready to unleash him over the second half of the season.

We can’t expect Williams to get 27 carries again. That was part of the Broncos’ game plan against the Chiefs to control the ball and keep it away from the Patrick Mahomes-led offense. That type of game plan will not be necessary every week, but it could be part of the plan again this week given the matchup with Buffalo’s explosive offense. The weather also could play a factor here, as there is expected to be heavy winds for this game, which could make both teams rely more on the running game.

Even before those two 80-yard games, Williams was still getting close to this number. He had 52 yards in two other games, and he’s been efficient with his carries all season, averaging right at 4.0 yards per carry. The Broncos’ revamped offensive line has also helped with that, as they are 8th in adjusted line yards and second in run block win rate this season.

Williams probably only needs around 14 carries to hit this over, and that is a very realistic number for him in this game. This pick also combines nicely with our Broncos spread pick, as a close game favors Williams getting more carries.

Our full SGP odds sit at +208 after these first two legs.

Dalton Kincaid 60+ receiving yards (+115)

Over the last 3 weeks, Kincaid has started producing what the Bills were hoping for when they selected him with their 1st round pick. The injury to Dawson Knox opened the door for Kincaid to emerge as an elite pass-catching weapon for Josh Allen. Now he gets a matchup with a defense allowing the most yards (71.1) and the 4th most receptions (6.25) per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Kincaid led the Bills in targets last week with 11 and is second on the team (behind Stefon Diggs) with 26 targets over the last 3 weeks (just under 9 per game). He hauled in 10 of those targets last week for a season-high 81 yards and has at least 65 receiving yards in three straight games. His receiving yards prop line sits at 52.5 yards this week, and he has hit the over on his receiving yards prop bet in 6 of his 8 games this season.

The sportsbooks are still catching up to Kincaid’s increased role in the Bills’ offense, and until they do his receiving yards prop will be a very good value. That’s why we went slightly more aggressive with the alternate line at 60+ yards to juice up the odds a bit higher. We also considered taking the over on 5.5 receptions instead at +124 odds, but preferred what should be the safer play on the yards for this same game parlay.

This third leg brings our full SGP odds to +525.

Same Game Parlay Card For Broncos vs. Bills

Broncos +7.5 (-115)
Javonte Williams over 55.5 rushing yards (-110)
Dalton Kincaid 60+ receiving yards (+115)

Full SGP odds: +525 ($10 wins $62.50)

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Noah Rosenstein

Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.