Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings Preview (11/15/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The Sacramento Kings (6-6) host the Brooklyn Nets (6-8) on Tuesday night. Both squads are firing on all cylinders at the moment; each own a 4-2 record over their last six games. The Kings are completely healthy, while the Nets will be without Kyrie Irving and TJ Warren. Ben Simmons is questionable to play – he missed Brooklyn’s previous contest.

Which team will continue their hot streak? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups are below.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings Betting Odds

Sacramento enters this matchup favored, as the spread sits at -1.5 Kings. Their moneyline can be found at -125, which is far from too juiced. Brooklyn’s moneyline is +108, so they must win 49% of the time to be profitable long-term. The 224.5 over under resides in the middle of the pack for Tuesday games.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings Prediction

I’m backing the Kings to cover the spread and their moneyline here.

Sacramento is 4th in elbow touches and 6th in elbow pass percentage because of Sabonis, who just shredded the Warriors for 26 points, 22 rebounds, and 8 assists on a 58.8 FG%. He possesses exceptional court vision and passing for a center. The Kings also rank 5th in drives and 1st in drive pass percentage because of Fox’s speedy first step and playmaking.

As a result, Sacramento’s passing web is complicated to predict and effective because a pass from the paint has an entire semi-circle of targets with a cutter near the basket as another option. Their plethora of outlets spread the defense out, and the Kings subsequently punish imperfect rotations to the tune of a 37.7 catch and shoot 3PT%.

Brooklyn doesn’t own the defensive personnel to disrupt Sacramento’s offensive hub. Claxton actually has significantly improved his defensive challenges at the rim, but his utility drops immensely the further he strays away. Because Sabonis often operates on the elbow, he will pull Claxton from his comfort zone and force him to defend laterally instead of vertically. Meanwhile, Fox can drive past Sumner off the dribble for a layup or potential assist to a cutting Sabonis or spot up shooter. The Kings likely also utilize screens to switch Joe Harris on Fox, which is an utter mismatch.

Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray are flamethrowers from deep who take advantage of Sacramento’s passing, but they will stress Brooklyn’s defense in different ways. Huerter uses screens to increase separation on jump shots, while Murray leverages his shot and frame to cut for easy buckets. Look for Murray to set off-ball screens for Huerter and confuse Brooklyn’s defensive switches once they bolt in opposite directions.

I’m expecting the Kings to score efficiently, but Brooklyn’s offense remains a threat. Although Murray is a solid defender, Durant (30.6 PPG) effortlessly obliterates opponents and can drop 40 points on any given night. Seth Curry, Joe Harris, and Royce O’Neale get scorching hot from three, while Cam Thomas is a volatile bench piece who possesses 25-point potential.

The Kings rank 26th in Defensive Rating, but they are slightly better than that metric indicates. Sacramento allows the fewest open/wide open 3PA (4+ feet from nearest defender), yet opponents are unfortunately shooting 39% on those attempts (2nd highest). They also rank 10th in contested two-point shots, 2nd in opponent points off fast breaks, and 6th in opponent points off second chances. They are by no means an elite defense – or even a good one – but the Kings are due for positive regression and remain far from abysmal.

Sacramento’s biggest weakness is their rim protection, but Brooklyn mostly punishes opponents through jump shots, not at the rim. While the Nets will not face a sturdy defensive obstacle here, the Kings defense will hold enough to stop Brooklyn from matching Sacramento’s dynamic offense.

Overall, I am confident in Sacramento to prevail here. Kevin Durant’s greatness assuredly creates some hesitation, but the trends heavily point towards the Kings.

Betting Trends

  • Nets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
  • Under is 7-1 in Nets last 8 overall
  • Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 overall

Key Matchups

Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Rebounding & Free Throws

The Nets rank 29th in defensive rebounding percentage, which doesn’t bode well considering Sabonis is a force on the glass. He exploited Golden State’s weak rebounding by grabbing 6 offensive rebounds, and he may replicate this performance. As a result, the Kings would score easy second chance points and kick their offensive production to a higher level. Brooklyn is also 22nd in opponent free throw rate; if Sabonis forces Claxton into early foul trouble, then Fox’s rim pressure will decimate Brooklyn’s backups. Should the Kings gain a significant advantage in both departments, then it’s unlikely the Nets offense keeps pace with the Kings.

Seth Curry vs. Malik Monk

Curry (9.8 PPG, 40.7 3PT%) and Monk (11.8 PPG, 36.4 3PT%) are both vital to their respective bench offenses. The duo each effectively space the floor and therefore own the ability to reach 18+ points with adequate volume. Not only will their offense be crucial, but their defense versus each other is also another avenue they can provide value in this matchup. If Curry or Monk heavily outplay the other, then they would contribute a significant advantage.

Brooklyn Nets Starting Lineup

PG: Edmond Sumner
SG: Joe Harris
SF: Royce O’Neale
PF: Kevin Durant
C: Nic Claxton

Sacramento Kings Starting Lineups

PG: De’Aaron Fox
SG: Kevin Huerter
SF: Harrison Barnes
PF: Keegan Murray
C: Domantas Sabonis

Key Injuries

Brooklyn Nets Injuries: Kyrie Irving (O), Ben Simmons (Q), Seth Curry (P), Nic Claxton (P), TJ Warren (O), Yuta Watanabe (Q)

Sacramento Kings Injuries:

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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