Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Rams NFL Player Props & Picks (12/3/23)

Get Rams vs Browns player prop picks & odds for the 12/3/23 matchup.

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Browns Vs. Rams Player Prop Picks

With both teams hanging around in their conference’s playoff hunt, the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Rams are set to play a fascinating game this Sunday (12/3/23). This game has no shortage of interesting players, with Super Bowl champions Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald on the LA side, and unsung performers Jerome Ford and Dustin Hopkins for Cleveland, so let’s see who will and won’t have a big day with some Browns vs. Rams player props.

Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

Stafford had a great start to the year, but has run into some accuracy issues of late. He’s thrown an interception in four straight games, which can happen to anyone, but the underlying trends are still really concerning. He’s dead last among all qualified starters with a completion percentage above expected of -4.9%, a very troubling figure considering the solid receiving talent around him with Cooper Kupp healthy again.

It also goes almost without saying, but he’s facing a fantastic defense in this one, which does not help his case. Cleveland is tops in the NFL in EPA and success rate against the pass, and second in terms of DVOA. As a home favorite, it’s not clear that the Rams will need to be pushing the ball downfield for four quarters, so a lack of volume could be an issue. Still, this isn’t likely to be a runaway even if the Rams do win, so it’s fairly probable that Stafford gets enough reps that one goes wrong.

Jerome Ford Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

It’s looking like Joe Flacco of all people will be starting for the Browns this Sunday. The former Super Bowl champion with the hated rival Baltimore Ravens is switching sides, having not taken a snap or been with a team since a few outings with the Jets last year. Flacco hasn’t played double-digit games since 2017, his penultimate season with Baltimore, as he lost the job to Lamar Jackson midway through 2018, so it’s hard to say that he’ll be the steady presence he was back in his prime.

With all of that said, the Browns are probably going to be a run-first offense in this one. They already were that kind of team in general, as they rank sixth in the league in run play percentage, and this week poses a great opportunity to lean into that trend. The Rams are 23rd in DVOA against the run, compared to a respectable 14th against the pass, so Cleveland’s best opportunities may be on the ground. Ford has been over this number in two of his past three games as his role has expanded, and with all signs pointing to a ground-based approach in this one, he could be in for an even bigger day.

Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+100)

When you can grab even-money odds on a prop that has hit over 90% of the time, you do it. That’s an oversimplification of course, but it’s not a bad thing that Hopkins, one of the most productive kickers in the NFL this season, has hit 28 of 31 field goals this year, including a perfect seven for seven beyond 50 yards, en route to hitting more than one field goal in 10 of 11 Browns games thus far- and drilling a 53-yarder in the other.

Hopkins has hit this prop in seven consecutive games, and should be in line to do the same. The Browns should be able to run the ball enough to move downfield against this Rams defense, which ranks 21st in DVOA, but their ability to finish drives should be questioned. Both teams are right around average in red zone efficiency, but with a 38 year old Flacco at the helm, Cleveland could experience a significant drop-off in the short field, which of course would give Hopkins the chances he needs to hit this prop.

Aaron Donald Under 0.75 Sacks (-115)

We’re fading Aaron Donald? Seriously? Well, in a way. This isn’t really an indictment on the legendary d-lineman as much as a situational play and a vote of confidence in his opposition, but it is worth noting that he isn’t the unparalleled force he was at the peak of his powers. He’s just below pace for a double-digit sack season, and while PFF is still giving him a very solid grade of 89.8 this year, that’s a career low, not the same as the low to even mid-90s numbers he would put up in his prime.

And now for the game script component, always such a big part of defensive props. As we’ve discussed, the Browns might not be throwing the ball too many times with Flacco leading the offense, which of course would limit Donald’s opportunities to sack the veteran passer. The Cleveland interior line has also played well this season in pass protection; all three linemen grade in the mid to high 70s in PFF’s grading system.

With 5.5 sacks so far, two of which came in one game, Donald has cleared this total in just four of his 11 appearances so far this season. If we were talking about a line of 0.25 sacks, this might be a different question, but 0.75 at essentially even money is a big number to play with for an interior lineman. In the past, Donald would have transcended that label and made the play worth it, but unfortunately, time takes its toll and while he’s still a great player, he’s not of that singular caliber anymore.

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