On Thursday night (10/26/23), we’ll watch the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Buffalo Bills with both teams looking for a bounceback win. In this article, find Buccaneers Vs. Bills predictions and our best bet which is the Bills -8.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
The Bills are slumping a bit right now as they’re 1-2 in their last three games after their dominant home win over their divisional rival Dolphins. They dropped a game in London against the Jaguars and came back home and looked half asleep against the Giants. Then, last week, they dropped a game against the 1-5 Patriots as 8.5-point favorites.
Seemingly everyone is selling Bills stock right now. However, I believe that means we’ll see a focused effort from them on Thursday night against an opponent they’re far better than. The Buccaneers have dropped two straight games after a 3-1 start, but I don’t think we’ve hit the bottom of the market for this team yet.
Tampa Bay ranks dead last in early down success rate as they have virtually no run game. Rachaad White is averaging a horrendous 3.2 YPC, which ranks fifth-worst among 31 RBs with 60+ carries. That will put them behind the sticks against a Bills defense that ranks second in pressure rate at 27.6%.
After a strong start to the season, we’re starting to see regression to the mean for Baker Mayfield, a quarterback who has been terrible under pressure for his entire career. While I have a lot of respect for offensive coordinator Dave Canales, this is a terrible spot for Mayfield on the road.
Josh Allen also has a strong opportunity for a bounceback against the defense with the third-highest blitz rate in the NFL. Allen struggled against the Patriots’ blitzing last week, but over the course of the season, he’s a top five QB by adjusted completion rate and passer rating against the blitz per PFF.
I see this game for the Bills as being very similar to their matchup with the Raiders earlier this season. After losing to the Jets in overtime in Week 1, they went back home and put a hurting on Las Vegas, winning 38-10 and easily covering as 8.5-point favorites. I backed them in that game, and I’ll do it again here. Buffalo wins this by 14+ points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction: Bills -8.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Buffalo Bills Best Odds
Oct. 26, 7:15 PM Spread Moneyline Total Odds updated October 26th, 2023, at 10:21 pm
TB @ BUF
Oct. 26, 7:15 PM
Odds updated October 26th, 2023, at 10:21 pm
The Bills are sitting as 8.5-point favorites at home in this game, and we’re not in the area of any key numbers there. However, I’d play their spread up to -10 if it moves after I finish writing this article. The over/under sits at 42.5, and I’d lean towards the under as I’m not sure how much scoring the Buccaneers contribute here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Buffalo Bills Key Injuries
The Bills are dealing with some major injury issues right now as cornerback Tre’Davious White, linebacker Matt Milano, and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones are on IR. Tight end Dawson Knox is also expected to miss some time with a wrist injury. Keep an eye on wide receiver Chris Godwin (neck) and defensive tackle Vita Vea (groin) as both are listed as questionable for the Bucs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Buffalo Bills Key Matchups
In this intriguing cross-conference Thursday Night Football game, both teams have some high level players on display. Let’s break down some of the key matchups that will determine the winner of this game.
Stefon Diggs Vs. Buccaneers Cornerbacks
If the Buccaneers want to compete in this game, they have to find a way to contain Stefon Diggs, which is easier said than done. Diggs already has 55 catches for 678 yards and six touchdowns this season, all of which are top five marks at his position. I expect a heavy emphasis on Diggs in this game after he was held to a season low 58 yards last week.
The Buccaneers don’t have a cornerback currently ranked in the top 35 in PFF’s coverage grades, and they’ve relied on undrafted rookie free agent Christian Izien in the slot for much of the year. He has allowed 21 catches on 24 targets this season, and Diggs could burn him if he plays in the slot in this game.
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) October 22, 2023
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Vs. Bills Cornerbacks
The Buccaneers have a lot of issues lately, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have been excellent all year. Evans has 30 catches for 468 yards and four touchdowns. Godwin hasn’t scored yet this year, but he has 33 catches for 398 yards. Both receivers offer unique matchup challenges.
The Bills lost former All Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season, but Christian Benford and Dane Jackson are back in the lineup after missing time earlier this season. Former All Pro safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer will make those cornerbacks’ lives easier, as will an elite defensive line that ranks third in pass rush win rate.
Single coverage against Mike Evans? 😂 pic.twitter.com/AlaZ2iCstI
— Steven Cheah (@StevenCheah) October 22, 2023