Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons player prop picks & odds for the (12/10/23) matchup.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Atlanta Georgia as a home game for the Falcons. The Bucs are currently a +2.5 underdog and +110 on the moneyline while the total is set at 41. Expect Bijan Robinson to make the most of his opportunities while Baker Mayfield carries the Bucs offense amidst Rachaad White’s struggles, all giving value as player props for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons matchup.
Bijan Robinson Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
It’s apparent at this point of the season that the only thing that can stop Bijan Robinson is Arthur Smith. Luckily to the benefit of Bijan, Smith has realized that he is the clear-cut number one back in this offense and has started to increase his carries. That was a troublesome area earlier in the year, splitting carries with Tyler Allgeier for inexcusable reasons.
While the yards didn’t exactly equate to a good game, the uptick in carries was a welcoming sight to see in their last game out against the New York Jets. The difference this time around is that the Falcons take on a far weaker front seven as the Bucs have mightily regressed from their earlier season metrics.
As of writing, the Bucs rush defense clocks in at 17th in Def Rush DVOA, 29th in Def Rush Success Rate, and 19th in Def Adjusted Line Yards. That means Bijan should face minimal resistance in his efforts to cut the distance to gain on earlier downs, setting up convertible third downs and moving the Falcons offense down the field. By staying in the contest, Bijan should experience another healthy dose of carries for a second week in a row.
Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown
He may have the shortest odds on the board to score a touchdown, but that doesn’t mean there is not any value to this number. Especially with it varying between sportsbooks, sitting as low as -115 and as high as +120. That’s a good reminder to have as many books as possible at your disposal, line shopping and getting the best number available.
— 🦄 (@arkeshrayyy) November 29, 2023
As for Bijan actually cashing this, he should feature a heavy workload when inside scoring position as Desmond Ridder’s red zone woes have continued. Especially with how vital this game is towards their playoff hopes, needing to maximize on scoring opportunities in the rare chance they are inside the ten.
The Bucs rush defense does drastically improve when backed into scoring position, ranking fourth in Def Rush EPA. That doesn’t mean that Bijan can’t churn out a few yards, let alone be a weapon in the pass attack in screen sets and dump offs.
Baker Mayfield Over 222.5 Passing Yards
If the Bucs want to stay within scoring pace and potentially shake up the division standings, then they must lean on Baker Mayfield’s arm to get the job done. The Falcons pass coverage has taken a nosedive the past few games, dipping down to as low as 29th in Def Pass DVOA.
The Falcons still excel at limiting the short throw, ranking fourth in Def Pass Success Rate, yet their coverage may be stretched out against potential Hall of Famer Mike Evans. Especially with Evans getting ample time to create separation as Baker should find himself in a clean pocket as the Falcons front four ranks 28th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. With the ground game practically non-existent, expect Baker to air it out at a higher rate to help clear this over.
Rachaad White Under 58.5 Rushing Yards
It has been a relatively tough year for Rachaad White and the Bucs ground game, coming into this contest ranked 27th in Rush DVOA, 31st in Rush Success Rate, and 25th in Rush EPA. He did manage to churn out some rare production in their last game, gashing the Carolina Panthers front seven for 84 yards and one touchdown on 20 carries.
The issue this time around is that he now faces a much tougher defensive front seven as the Falcons rank 10th in Def Rush DVOA, 10th in Def Rush Success Rate, and second in Def Rush EPA. Running lanes should be practically non-existent in the trenches as the Falcons rank 10th in Def Adjusted Line Yards in comparison to the Bucs offensive line who clocks in at 29th on the other end.
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