Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (12/10/23)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons kicks off this Sunday (12/10/23) at 1:00pm EST in Atlanta, Georgia as a home game for the Falcons. Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons odds & predictions below as our best bet is on under 39.5 as this game will be a defensive slugfest.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Best Bet

It may not look like it on paper, but this matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons may be the biggest game of the weekend in terms of playoff implications. With the Saints faltering and losing Derek Carr, the Bucs now find themselves in a two-horse race against the division leading Atlanta Falcons. Wildcard hopes are all but dashed for the NFC South, making it vital to win the division and get an automatic playoff berth with the first game being at home as well.

You can make an argument that both teams are better off turning their direction towards the offseason as neither are a contender by any means, but someone has to win the division and make the playoffs. That is heavily correlated to the result of this game — a game that shapes up to be a defensive slugfest as both defenses are significantly better than both offenses.

All season long, the Falcons offense has struggled to produce with Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Arthur Smith, meanwhile, has struggled to get this team to convert in the redzone where Bijan Robinson has seemingly been underutilized. Smith now has to find a way to move the ball against a Bucs defense who excels in the mid field, while also locking up in the red zone by ranking fourth in Def Rush EPA. Even with a weakness in defending the pass inside the 10, the Falcons are just as bad in that same regard by ranking 23rd in Pass EPA.

As for the Bucs, their inability to run the ball has led to their own demise as opposing defenses have wised up and are selling out to more coverage. The Bucs rush attack ranks 27th in Rush DVOA, 31st in Rush Success Rate, and 25th in Rush EPA. The Falcons front seven rank 10th or better in the same metrics with an average blitz rate, meaning they have no issue with continuing to run their scheme to the same success with their linebackers already anchored across the middle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Best Bet: Under 39.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds

The stakes are high and oddsmakers have this as a tight contest by opening the Falcons as a -3 favorite. Bettors lean towards the Bucs favor, betting them off the key number of +3 and have now bet them down to +2.5 as of writing. The line movement makes sense as neither team has a true massive edge on the other, rounding out as two equal teams with the winner potentially being decided by whoever has the ball last.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 43.5. Bettors believe that points will come at an even slower pace by betting the under down to as low as 39.5. Both offenses have mightily struggled due to poor quarterback play, now having to find production against two competitive defenses.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Key Injuries

Both teams come into this contest fairly healthy, yet it’s worth monitoring the Bucs linebacking unit as Devin White and Lavonte David are both listed as questionable on their injury report.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons Key Matchups

Can the Bucs front seven slow down rookie sensation Bijan Robinson?

Bijan Robinson Vs. Bucs Front Seven

So far this season it’s apparent that the only thing that can slow down Bijan Robinson is Arthur Smith himself. When actually opting into the idea of using him, Bijan has gashed opposing defenses by averaging nearly five yards per carry.

#ProBowlVote Bijan Robinson pic.twitter.com/4HQEaEZ0Ke

— 🦄 (@arkeshrayyy) November 29, 2023

The issue is that the play calling is obvious, and he still gets grossly underutilized for the much slower Tyler Allgeier. This blend of coaching malpractice has led to rushing marks of 27th in Rush Success Rate, potentially being unable to take advantage of the Bucs lowly rank of 31st in Def Rush Success Rate. This will force Ridder into farther distances to gain on third downs, potentially stalling out their offense to the benefit of the under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart

QB: Baker Mayfield
RB1: Rachaad White
RB2: Chase Edmonds
LWR: Mike Evans
RWR: Chris Godwin
SWR: Trey Palmer
TE1: Cade Otton

Atlanta Falcons Depth Chart

QB: Desmond Ridder
RB1: Bijan Robinson
RB2: Tyler Allgeier
LWR: Drake London
RWR: Van Jefferson
SWR: Scotty Miller
TE1: Kyle Pitts

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