Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans NFL Player Props & Picks (11/5/23)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Houston Texas as a home game for the Texans. The Buccaneers are currently a +3 underdog and +130 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40. Expect a bounce back performance from the Texans, giving the likes of CJ Stroud, Tank Dell, and Rachaad White value as player props for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans matchup.
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Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans got off to a hot start this season, now both currently sitting at 3-4. Baker Mayfield looked to revitalize his career while CJ Stroud flashes franchise quarterback potential, making this an exciting matchup between two rebuilding units. With the Bucs defense regressing from their elite metrics, that opens the door for the Texans to set a scoring pace too fast for Tampa to keep up with off the arm of Stroud and their unique pass attack.
CJ Stroud Over 236.5 Passing Yards
Stroud has started to silence his doubters early in his NFL career, flashing an elite arm with pinpoint precision and good decision making. While his arm was never in question, it was his decision making and ability to make the correct next read that was in question during the draft process. Serious red flags were raised after failing his S2 test, now showing that he can make the correct read as he shreds opposing secondaries.
Houston will need to call on his arm more than ever as the Bucs defense is a stout unit. While regressing from their early dominant metrics, the Bucs still do a fantastic job at stuffing the run while being prone to being picked apart by the pass. This is in large part of their scheme, blitzing at the fifth highest percentage in football while only generating pressure at the 25th best rate.
That leaves their middle wide open for the picking, playing right into the Texans hands as they thrive in streaks across the middle. With an offensive line decimated by injuries, the Texans have reverted their offense to quick throws in order to negate the increase in pressure. Expect more of the same as Stroud continues to hit his receivers in stride as they cross through the middle of the defense.
CJ Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Not only will the Texans need to rely on the pass attack in the mid field, but their best course of success in scoring position is through the air as well. The Bucs rank second in the NFL in Def Rush EPA while they dip to 20th in Def Pass EPA. That’s a sharp difference in comparison to the Texans metrics, ranking eighth in Pass EPA and 23rd in Rush EPA.
What an absolute DOT by CJ Stroud. pic.twitter.com/fRduK1KrRy
— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) October 29, 2023
As previously mentioned, they are equipped to shred the Bucs second level as the Texans thrive in creating separation towards the middle. Especially with the emergence of Nico Collins, giving Tank Dell singular coverage as one of the better young route runners in the league.
Tank Dell Over 3.5 Receptions
Speaking of Tank Dell, the rookie wideout is poised for a big game as he takes firm command of the WR 2 role heading into this contest. Robert Woods has been ruled out of the game due to injury, giving Dell a higher snap count which normally translates to more targets.
He plays a vital role towards the Texans success in this game, being the recipient of streaking across the middle in singular coverage while Collins shifts the defense with his downfield ability. With the Bucs defensive front mightily regressing, expect plenty of opportunities for Stroud to sit in the pocket and hit his young receiver in stride. With an uptick in targets, Dell is in a great spot to make his presence known.
Rachaad White Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. With each passing game of the season, it’s becoming more apparent that the Bucs cannot establish a ground game. Multiple factors play into this as their offensive line has been hobbled by injuries and fail to open up gaps for White to exploit. The Texans also rank well against the run, clocking in at eighth in Def Rush Success Rate.
Couple that with White’s lack of awareness and their running plays may get stuffed in the backfield at a high clip. The Bucs may also be playing from behind for a good portion of the game, having to rely on a heavier dose of the run which eats away at White’s rush attempts.
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