Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/19/23)
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Get Buccaneers vs. 49ers player prop picks & odds for the (11/19/23) matchup
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This game features a pair of strong defenses, but both have their flaws, which will create excellent opportunities for certain players to have a big day- let’s check out some of those potential top performers.
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+245)
No, this one isn’t a lock, but unless you believe that Tampa Bay will be kept completely out of the end zone in this one, the value is absolutely incredible. And to be completely frank, you should not believe that. This Niners defense is a good one, but it’s definitely flawed, especially in terms of the secondary. When it comes specifically to the red zone, they’ve been just average, ranking 19th in the league with a defensive red zone touchdown percentage of about 55%.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Buccaneers have essentially no rushing offense, ranking 32nd in both EPA and success rate, and 31st in DVOA. If they’re scoring, it’s going to be through the air. Of Baker Mayfield’s 14 passing touchdowns this season, the vast majority have been to either Evans or tight end Cade Otton.
While the Niners have some defensive weaknesses, the middle of the field is all strength. The fearsome linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw patrols the middle, and safety Talanoa Hufanga is more than able to come down and disrupt intermediate passes, especially near the goal line. This area of strength really diminishes Otton’s goal line threat level.
The best approach for Mayfield is going to be to attack outside the numbers, and there’s quite literally no better man for the job than Evans, one of the great goal line receiving targets of all time. With six touchdowns across six separate games, Evans is extremely reliable when it comes to scoring, and this number is absolutely ludicrous for him.
Brock Purdy Over 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Simply put, Purdy is going to pass because running is not much of an option against Tampa. They lead the league in EPA against the rush, with DVOA lagging just a bit behind at a still solid seventh place. Vita Vea continues to be a total disruptive force on the defensive line, while Lavonte David is still doing his thing at middle linebacker, and Antoine Winfield Jr. has been phenomenal coming in to defend the run as a safety.
Christian McCaffrey will always be a huge part of the Niners offense, but we’ll get to him in a second. The best way for the Niners to move the ball will be through the air, even if they want to do short, safe, run-type plays. They have playmakers like McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel that allow them to throw quick passes into the flat, bubble screens, and more high-percentage throws that will give them similar yardage to rushing plays, but keep Vea, David, and others farther from the play.
Purdy has been over this number in three straight games, as his receiving corps has gotten healthier and hugely important offensive tackle Trent Williams has returned from injury. The Bucs’ cornerback room is a huge weakness, dragging the secondary down to 30th in PFF’s coverage grades. San Francisco’s wideouts, plus McCaffrey, can absolutely shred them and help Purdy to get well past this number.
Christian McCaffrey 104.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)
We’ve already touched on a lot of the rationale for this prop in the Purdy section; we’re doing the combined yardage prop because it’s hard to know how many of McCaffrey’s touches will come on runs, but he’s still going to be a hugely important part of this offense every week.
Another factor, which also supports the Purdy prop, is that this game is being priced as more of a blowout than it should be. That evaluation bleeds into player props due to assumptions about game script, and creates some value for us. This won’t be a true runaway where the Niners can pull McCaffrey and let their second and third backs run out the clock.
They should be ahead, playing conservatively enough to rely on the short plays with which McCaffrey so excels, but Tampa will hang in there enough that San Francisco needs their superstar to get them right to the finish line. McCaffrey has been over this number in consecutive games after a mini-slump; the bye week appears to have helped both him and Williams get healthy enough to provide a real boost to his production.
Lavonte David Over 8.5 Tackles + Assists (-140)
This one goes hand in hand with the game script we’ve been discussing for the Niners offensive props. If San Francisco is keeping things short rather than pushing it downfield, Tampa’s veteran middle linebacker is going to be involved, whether the Niners are throwing the ball or running it.
This is also a great spot to invest in the over for David’s combined tackles prop, as he just had his least productive game in some time. He racked up just five combined tackles in his last game, but had 11 or more in each of his previous four, peaking with an impressive 14 against the Bills. With a Niners offense full of physical playmakers, David will once again have his hands full all day, and should have no shortage of opportunities to make some hits.
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