Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (12/25/23)

The Milwaukee Bucks (22-7) battle the New York Knicks (16-12) this Christmas Day (12/25/23). Get Bucks vs. Knicks player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Bucks vs. Knicks game?

Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-109 Caesars) & 30+ Points (+150 FD)

Because Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley struggle mightily to navigate ball screens, opposing guards penetrate the arc with ease via the pick-and-roll. Brook Lopez remains a formidable rim protector though, and his deep drop coverage deters ball handlers from fully committing to a drive. However, it typically leaves the mid-range jumper relatively open. In addition, guards can frequently acquire clean looks on pull-up three-pointers because Lopez does not hedge the high ball screen. 

As a result, Milwaukee’s defense surrenders the largest mid-range frequency and tenth largest off-the-dribble three-point frequency (via ShotQuality). Jalen Brunson loves to weaponize these areas, as about 54 percent of his field goal attempts come from the mid-range or above the break. Plus, he is an efficient scorer too. 

Overall, Milwaukee’s defensive weaknesses and scheme is perfect for Brunson to exploit, and he has done just that recently. Across his past four matchups versus the Bucks, he scored 44, 45, 24, and 36 points. Look for Brunson to once again notch 30 points against a Milwaukee defense that gives up the fourth most points per game to point guards. 

For the bets to hold a positive expected value, Brunson needs to score 27 points at least 52 percent of the time and 30 points at least 40 percent of the time. Otherwise, they are not profitable plays in the long run. 

Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ Rebounds (-150 FD) & 12+ Rebounds (+175 FD)

New York’s center rotation is in dire straits with Mitchell Robinson out for the season and Jericho Sims sidelined for the near future. Isaiah Hartenstein’s only competition is 38-year-old Taj Gibson, who cannot survive for more than 15 minutes at the most against Milwaukee. 

Over the past three games since Sims’ injury, Hartenstein has recorded 17, 10, and 13 rebounds, including 0.392 rebounds per minute. Based on that rate, Hartenstein needs to play only 26 minutes to reach 10 rebounds here. That usage is a certainty barring injury. 

And while Antetokounmpo, Portis, and Lopez appear to be a dominant rebounding trio, this has not exactly been the case. The Bucks are 23rd in offensive rebound rate and 15th in opponent offensive rebound rate, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Hartenstein here. 

He needs to clear 10 rebounds about 60 percent of the time and 12 rebounds about 36 percent of the time for the bets to be profitable in the long run.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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