Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (1/3/24)

The Milwaukee Bucks (24-9) once again face the Indiana Pacers (18-14) this Wednesday (1/3/24). Get Bucks vs. Pacers player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Bucks vs. Pacers game?

Damian Lillard Alt Under 27.5 Points (-120 DK) & Under 8.5 1st Quarter Points (-125 DK)

Although it’s risky to take unders for All-NBA caliber players, Damian Lillard has a brutal matchup here. The Pacers easily allow the fewest open plus wide open three-point attempts, as well as the fewest above the break attempts (via NBA.com). In addition, opponents average the second lowest off-the-dribble three-point frequency against them. 

65 percent of Lillard’s field goal attempts come from at least ten feet away from the basket, and 47 percent originate from above the break. Paint scorers feast against Indiana’s historically awful interior defense, but Lillard’s perimeter-oriented game will be in rough shape. He has scored less than 25 points in eight straight matchups versus Indiana. The last time he managed to breach 28 points was late January of 2020 – nearly four years ago. Overall, look for Lillard’s scoring to take a backseat against a Pacers defense that gives up the ninth fewest points per game to point guards. 

Meanwhile, Lillard has struggled mightily in the first quarter this season. During this frame, he owns an underwhelming 39 field goal percentage and 37 three-point percentage. Lillard has failed to reach nine first quarter points in 24 of 31 games, or 77 percent of the time. Finally, Lillard only reached this mark in one of his last six matchups against Indiana – the one hit came on Monday where he scored nine points but needed four made free throws to get there. In summation, the All-NBA point guard struggles to open games, and Indiana remains a bad matchup for him. 

For the bets to hold positive expected values, Lillard must fail to score 28 points about 55 percent of the time and fail to score nine first quarter points about 56 percent of the time. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo First Basket (+310 FD) & First Basket Free Throws (+2300 FD)

Brook Lopez is heavily favored to win the tip-off, so Milwaukee should acquire the first shot of the game. Indiana easily surrenders the most field goal attempts within eight feet of the basket, and Antetokounmpo leads the NBA in this department. Over his past five matchups versus Indiana, he has averaged 44.6 points on a 70 field goal percentage. The Pacers simply cannot stop him. 

Indiana also ranks 28th in opponent free throw attempt rate, and Antetokounmpo is averaging an astonishing 17.6 free throw attempts per game across his last five matchups against the Pacers. 

Antetokounmpo must score the first basket (which includes free throws) about 24 percent of the time. Plus, he needs to score the first basket via free throws only about four percent of the time. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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