Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview 11/17/19: Analysis, Daily Fantasy

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The Bills are heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins this Sunday. The Bills are coming off of a couple of tough losses over their past three weeks, losing to the Eagles and the Browns, yet still triumphing over the Redskins. Their run game, which had been promising after their game against the Redskins, didn’t look as great against a Browns rush defense that has been pretty lacking this season. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are on a hot streak. They’ve won two in a row, beating the Jets by a solid 8 points and more surprisingly beating the Colts last week. Fitzpatrick has breathed a little life into their team, but the real key to their win came from the 3 interceptions they got off of Hoyer, the Colts’ backup to Brissett. Despite Miami looking decent these past couple of weeks, I’m still favoring the Bills in this matchup, as I think their running game is going to get back on track against a lacking Dolphins rush defense.

TV Schedule

Date: Sunday, November 17th, 2019
Time: 10:00 AM
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Coverage: CBS

Injury Report

Bills: N/A
Dolphins: Ken Webster (Q), Avery Moss (Q), Reshad Jones (Q)

Buffalo Bills Analysis

Buffalo BillsThe Bills had a promising matchup going into week 10 against the Browns. Devin Singletary, their running back, had a big game the week before against the Redskins and was going into a matchup against a Browns defense that allowed the 3rd most rushing yards per game. However, for some reason, the Bills only ran the ball 20 times, Singletary getting only 8 of those carries. For comparison’s sake, Singletary alone had 20 carries against the Redskins, and the Bills ran the ball a total of 39 times. I’m not quite sure why the Bills gave up on the run on Sunday. Singletary had 8 carries for 42 yards, which is an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Josh Allen carried 6 times for 28 yards, and scored two touchdowns off of his runs. The Dolphins run defense allows even more yards per game than the Browns averaged in week 10, with 146.1. Again, I think the key to a win for the Bills is going to be on the ground. Whether they give their run game a chance is apparently up in the air, given their decision against the Browns.

The Bills pass defense continues to be strong. They allow an average 188.7 yards per game through the air, the 3rd fewest in the league. They’ve also only allowed 7 touchdowns through the air, tied with the Broncos for 2nd fewest in the league. This looks great against a Miami pass offense that hasn’t been throwing the ball very well so far this season. The Bills defense is weaker against the run, and they’ll have to look out for Ballage, Miami’s replacement for Kenyan Drake. I think the Bills are going to come out on top in this matchup due to their powerful pass defense and their strong rushing offense.

Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Frank Gore
RB2: Devin Singletary
WR1: John Brown
WR2: Andre Roberts
WR3: Cole Beasley
TE: Tyler Kroft

Miami Dolphins Analysis

Miami DolphinsFor the first time this season, the Dolphins are actually on a hot streak. They’ve won their past two games, their first against the Jets and their second a huge upset over the Colts. Fitzpatrick has breathed some good old Fitzmagic into this offense, and put up some pretty good numbers in week 9 against the Jets, completing 24 of his 36 passes for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns, no interceptions. His numbers weren’t as great in their defensive battle against the Colts, however, when he completed 21 of 33 passes for 169 yards and no touchdowns, throwing one interception on the day as well. The Dolphins gave their running back Kalen Ballage 20 carries on Sunday, which he took for only 43 yards, an average of 2.1 yards per carry. Despite these numbers, I think the run game is going to be the key if they want to continue their hot streak. The Bills have a top 5 pass defense, but a rush defense that allows 115.6 yards per game, the 12th most in the league. I think if they give Ballage as many carries as he got against the Colts, he’s going to be able to make something happen with those opportunities.

The Dolphins defense really showed up against the Colts. The Dolphins went into Sunday’s with three interceptions over the entire season. By the end of the game they had doubled it, picking Hoyer off three times. The Bills have thrown the 12th most interceptions at 8 (tied with the 49ers) and have a passing offense that only gets 212.6 yards on average per game, 24th in the league. If the Dolphins pass defense can keep their momentum going they’re going to hugely increase their odds at winning. They have a tough matchup against a hot Devin Singletary on the ground that is most likely going to cause them trouble, as their rush defense allows the 3rd most yards on average with 146.1. I think this will be their downfall on Sunday, but I think they have a strong chance at a win if they can get some turnovers through the air.

Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB1: Kalen Ballage
RB2: Patrick Laird
WR1: DeVante Parker
WR2: Jakeem Grant
WR3: Albert Wilson
TE: Nick O’Leary

Daily Fantasy

I think we’re looking at a run-heavy game on Sunday. Kalen Ballage, Miami’s running back, comes in at around 28% ownership. He got the ball a lot against the Colts, and if he gets the same amount of carries on Sunday I think he’ll be able to do a lot more with them, considering the Bills weaker run defense. Singletary has a much higher ownership percentage at around 84%, but there’s a small chance he’s available in your league or has even been sitting on your bench. This might be the game to start him in, as he’s going up against the rush defense that allows the 3rd most yards per game on average. As I said, I think this is going to be a run heavy game, so I think any receiver, tight end, or quarterback slots could be filled by players from other teams. I think that these running backs could put on big shows, however, so keep an eye out.

I'm a student at UC Santa Barbara studying English. I've been watching football for almost my entire life. A couple of years ago, I started to really get into statistics and became a lot more interested in the NFL and have been really excited about it ever since.

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