Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals kicks off Sunday (11/05/23) at 8:20 p.m. EST in Cincinnati as a home game for the Bengals. Get Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals predictions and best bets below as our best bet is the Bengals covering the spread as a short favorite.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction & Best Bet
After a rough start to the season, the Cincinnati Bengals are starting to look like their Super Bowl-contending selves. They thoroughly beat the San Francisco 49ers in their last game. Joe Burrow is looking healthier with each game, showing more mobility in the pocket as he hits his star-studded pass catchers in stride. The trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are enough to give opposing defenses fits. Now they face a reeling Bills secondary, decimated by injuries.
The regression can’t be overstated as the Bills have made the likes of the Patriots and Buccaneers look competitive offensively. Once a top-5 defensive unit per DVOA, Buffalo now ranks 14th in that regard. They still generate pressure at one of the highest rates in the NFL, while ranking 18th at blitz rate. But their back end has been getting burned when their front four is not able to get to the quarterback.
This poses a potential major issue against Joe Burrow and Co. Burrow has been shredding opposing secondaries as the Bengals start to ramp up their downfield attack. The metrics do not exactly tell the story of how they have played as of late or how awful their start to the season has been. But their pass metrics have ticked up from near dead last in the league to 11th in Pass DVOA, 11th in Pass Success Rate and 10th in Pass EPA. Their offensive line has done a great job in pass protection as well, clocking in at seventh in Adjusted Sack Rate.
The Bengals’ defense has been steadily improving as well as their young pieces get more experience with each passing game. That’s especially true in the youthful secondary, where they rank 11th in Def Pass DVOA and 10th in Def Pass EPA. They are a Havoc-minded unit and excel at creating disruptions, potentially getting the chance of taking advantage of Josh Allen, who continues to be prone to committing turnovers.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction & Best Bet: Bengals -1.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Best Betting Odds
Even with the Bills regressing from their elite marks, oddsmakers still leaned in their favor by opening them as a -1 favorite. Bettors believe that the wrong team was initially favored and have backed the Bengals up to -2 in some shops. This comes as no surprise for how both teams have looked the past few weeks with the Bengals coming off a statement win against the 49ers.
Points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the total at 46.5. Bettors believe that number did not open high enough, backing the over up to 49.5 as of this writing. That comes as no surprise as the Bengals’ offense is rounding back into form and are getting a regressing Bills defense while Buffalo still serves as a formidable unit when on offense as well.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Key Injuries
The Bills starting units on both sides of the ball remain fairly healthy while Trey Hendrickson is a potential big loss for the Bengals as he is currently listed as questionable on their injury report.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Key Matchups
Can Joe Mixon continue to provide the Bengals offense valuable rushing production?
Joe Mixon Vs. Bills Front Four
A major benefit from the Bengals recent pass success is that their stud back Joe Mixon gets more open field to work with out of the backfield as opposing second levels are stretched thin. When Joe Mixon is running wild, the Bengals offense is near impossible to slow down.
Joe Mixon high-stepping into the end zone 😤pic.twitter.com/xoixdWYvoh
— Bengals Nation (@BengalsNationCP) October 29, 2023
He may find himself in a position to succeed again as the Bills defense have also regressed at stopping the run. They currently rank 17th in Def Rush DVOA, 21st in Def Rush EPA, and 16th in Def Rush Success Rate. With the Bills blitzing at a below average rate, expect Mixon to find plenty of holes to work with in the trenches and burst out for sizable gains at a time against a thin linebacking unit.