Get Bills vs. Chiefs player prop picks & odds for the (12/10/23) matchup
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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks
The Buffalo Bills (6-6) travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs (8-4) on Sunday (12/10/23) at 4:25 p.m. EST. The Bills have won the last two regular season matchups in Kansas City, while the Chiefs have beaten the Bills in the playoffs in two of the last three seasons. That recent history sets up what should be another intriguing matchup between two Super Bowl-caliber teams.
Gabe Davis longest reception over 19.5 yards (-111 at Caesars)
We are always a bit hesitant to bet on Gabe Davis as he is such a hot-and-cold player. There are too many weeks when he just completely disappears in favor of guys like Khalil Shakir or Dalton Kincaid. However, we feel very good about Davis having a solid game in this matchup and making at least one explosive play.
Kansas City’s defense has been the strongest unit on their team for most of the season, but they have started to decline over the last few weeks, particularly against the pass. While they are 5th in DVOA and 4th in EPA allowed against the pass this season, they have dropped to 18th in EPA per dropback over their last four games. Giving up big plays has been part of the problem, as they have allowed the 10th-most yards per attempt and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate on deep passes (20+ air yards).
That sets up well for Gabe Davis, who has been the Bills’ best deep ball threat this season. Davis leads the team in both receptions (9) and targets (20) on balls thrown 20+ yards down the field this season. He has a reception of at least 20 yards in seven of his 12 games this season including his last two in a row. He is also coming off his best game of the season when he caught six passes for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles.
Davis also could get some extra targets this week because Stefon Diggs will have a tough matchup against the Chiefs top CB L’Jarius Sneed, who is likely to shadow him for most of the game. There is a big drop-off after Sneed to the rest of the Chiefs’ CBs.
Davis is likely to be matched up primarily against either Jaylen Watson or Joshua Williams, who typically play outside corner against three-receiver sets with Trent McDuffie sliding inside to the slot. Watson is allowing a 60% catch rate and a 117.5 passer rating when targeted, while Williams is allowing a 66.7% catch rate and 119.2 passer rating, according to Pro Football Focus.
Davis has the edge against either of those players, and should have plenty of opportunities to make a big play in this game. Of course, if he makes one 20+ yard reception, then there is also a good chance he will go over his receiving yards prop line of 39.5. While we like that bet too, we prefer the one with better odds that only requires one play to cash.
James Cook over 46.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Forgive the terrible pun, but in the two games since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the Bills’ offensive coordinator, James Cook has been… cooking. He has logged 20+ touches and gained 100+ yards from scrimmage in both games. In his previous 10 games, he only had one game with 20+ touches, way back in Week 2. He also has at least 16 carries in both games, and Week 2 was also the only other game this season where he got that kind of rushing volume.
If those trends continue, Cook should have no problem gaining at least 47 rushing yards in this game. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the run all season. They are allowing the 5th-highest yards per carry at 4.6 and they are 28th in DVOA and 31st in EPA against the run. They have allowed at least 70 rushing yards by an opposing RB in five straight games and have allowed at least 50 rushing yards in three other games (eight total).
If the Bills are going to get Cook involved in the offense, it’s most likely to be on the ground despite his prowess as a pass catcher. The Chiefs are allowing just 21.9 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, which is the 2nd-best in the league. Cook has gone over his rushing yards prop in seven of his 12 games this season including five of his last seven, and we expect that to continue this week in a favorable matchup on the ground.
Rashee Rice over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Over the last two weeks it has looked like the Chiefs have finally found their No. 1 WR in rookie Rashee Rice. Patrick Mahomes has been looking in Rice’s direction consistently, targeting him a team-high 19 times over the last two games. For context, Travis Kelce only has 12 total targets in those games.
Rice has turned those targets into 8 catches in each game and 171 total receiving yards. He has at least 50 receiving yards in five of his last seven games and is averaging just under 60 yards per game over that span.
The betting markets are still catching up to this recent uptick in his production, which creates some nice value with this pick. This week’s line of 51.5 yards is Rice’s highest prop line of the season, but it’s still low.
There is also potential for higher-than-normal passing volume from Mahomes in this game because starting running back Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out with a shoulder injury. If Mahomes is passing even more than usual and Rice is already seeing the most targets on the team over the last two weeks, then the talented rookie should have no problem going over 51.5 receiving yards. He also gets a good matchup against a Bills defense that has struggled to replace top CB Tre’Davious White and is 22nd in DVOA against the pass.