Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay (12/10/23): Expert Picks & Predictions

Over the past few years, as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have been at the helm of their respective franchises, the Chiefs and Bills have provided us with some of the most entertaining NFL games in both the regular and postseason. This week should be no exception, as the Chiefs are reeling in the wake of their third loss in five games, and the Bills absolutely must win to keep their postseason hopes alive. With two juggernauts poised to put out a tremendous effort, all eyes will be on this game, so why not have some fun with it and play a same game parlay?

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks

These two teams always seem to combine for some offensive fireworks, so there should be plenty players who could contribute to that game flow and have a big day.

Leg 1: Chiefs Moneyline (-120)

When I see Patrick Mahomes favored by less than a field goal at Arrowhead, I’m immediately intrigued. You can call it a trend or an angle, but the fact of the matter is that the great quarterback-coach pairings find a way to win at home the vast majority of the time, and the Mahomes-Reid duo is truly one of the best ever. We’ll talk about this more under another prop, but while his understudy has been great, star Bills linebacker Matt Milano’s skill set and familiarity with Mahomes will be missed as his team tries to limit the reigning MVP’s uniquely dynamic threat.

You could say the Bills are undervalued due to being one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL, but with the spread of just a point and a half, it’s really hard to say that; there’s no way they should be favorites. They’ve been solid overall, and Josh Allen is playing his best football in quite some time, but this Chiefs defense is not the same one he’s seen in years past. This unit has the talent up front to force him into the mistakes that have long been his achilles heel, as they pressure opposing QBs at the fourth-highest rate of any team in the league.

Leg 2: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-135)

Kelce has not been his most dominant self this year, but his struggles have been slightly overblown, perhaps due in part to the magnifying glass he’s been under due to some of his personal off-the-field exploits. He’s picked up a very solid 172 yards over the past two games, and should continue to be the focal point of an offense that doesn’t have as many skill options as it has had in years past.

Without Matt Milano on the other side, Kelce is going to have plenty of opportunities over the middle against the Bills, whose secondary has come a long way in terms of defending the sideline areas. That being said, it’s not a great overall pass defense unit, ranking 22nd in DVOA on opponents’ dropbacks, and they’re only average when it comes to preventing scores in the red zone; this is a great opportunity for Kelce to score for the first time in three weeks.

Leg 3: Stefon Diggs 60+ Receiving Yards (-220)

This one is fairly straightforward; the Bills should be playing from behind and going to the air, and when they do that, Diggs is a huge part of the game plan. Diggs has, uncharacteristically, been over this number just once in his past six games, making this a phenomenal time to buy low on a player who had previously crossed this threshold in eight of his previous nine contests- missing it by just a pair of yards in the one outlier.

Diggs is, to absolutely nobody’s surprise, by far Buffalo’s leading receiver this season with nearly 1,000 yards already. Nobody else on the team has crossed the 600-yard mark, and his 121 targets are also twice as many as second-place Gabe Davis has accrued. In a shootout, gunslinger Josh Allen will frequently turn to his most reliable sidearm, as he did a year ago in KC when Diggs racked up 148 yards.

Leg 4: Rashee Rice 4+ Receptions (-310)

Similarly, the Chiefs will be an air-first team in this game as they look to outpace a high-flying Bills offense under interim coordinator Joe Brady. Ranking 25th in rushing success rate, the Chiefs will need to utilize Mahomes to keep the ball moving and stay ahead of the chains.

Rice is the team’s top wideout, as the second-leader in targets, catches, and yardage after only Kelce. His role has only grown throughout a really nice rookie season, and he’s cracked this number in seven of his last eight contests, including each of the last three. If the Chiefs are going to stay ahead at home, it’s going to mean an efficient, high-volume air attack, and Rice fits the bill perfectly.

Leg 5: James Cook 25+ Rushing Yards (-470)

Adding a leg of -470 may seem inconsequential, but it jumps our overall parlay odds from +467 to the final odds of +652, so it meaningfully impacts our potential payout. As the odds indicate, this leg has a pretty good chance of hitting, especially in a matchup with a Chiefs defense that absolutely cannot defend the run, as they rank 28th in DVOA on those snaps, or 31st by EPA.

Yes, it’s going to be a pass-first approach for Buffalo, but a few carries can go a long way against this unit, especially if they’re keyed in on the pass and Allen as a rushing threat. Cook has been over this number in almost every game, with just two exceptions, one of which was a strange one against a great Jaguars run defense in which he only received five carries. He also only ran it six times in his other miss, and still came very close to hitting this number; unless this game is another stark outlier, he should fulfill this leg with ease.

Same Game Parlay Card For Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Full parlay odds: +652

Chiefs Moneyline (-120)
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-135)
Stefon Diggs 60+ Receiving Yards (-220)
Rashee Rice 4+ Receptions (-310)
James Cook 25+ Rushing Yards (-470)

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From starting my own blog in Middle School, to working on a friend’s in college, and finally joining the Lineups team this year, I’ve been writing about sports for over a decade and betting on them as long as I’ve been legally able. I graduated from the University of Michigan last year, where I took sports journalism classes alongside my business major. Having played and watched sports for almost my whole life, I aim to provide insight and entertainment, as well as profitable picks, in my writing about professional and collegiate leagues.

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