Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Matchup Preview (1/3/2020): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)

The Dolphins (10-5) leave their warm-weathered home and travel north to the frigid climate of upstate New York. This game means everything for their playoff hopes. One of the Titans (10-5), Ravens (10-5), Browns (10-5), Colts (10-5), and Dolphins will miss the postseason. A win, however, solidifies Miami’s second playoff berth since 2009.

The Bills, meanwhile, are not so worried. They clinched their first AFC East title since 1995 a couple of weeks ago and will only look to earn better seeding. In just a couple of weeks, they will have their opportunity to end a 24-year drought of winning a postseason game. They have a chance to warm up for their first home playoff game in over 2 decades this weekend against a respectable Dolphins opponent.

For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Matchup Page.

TV Schedule

Date: January 3rd, 2020
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium – Orchard Park, New York
TV Coverage: CBS

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Live Stream

Where can you watch Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Free Online Now.

Injuries

Buffalo Bills:
IR list: Del’Shawn Phillips (quadriceps), Tommy Sweeny (illness), Cody Ford (knee), Isaiah Hodgins (shoulder), T.J. Yeldon (illness), Cam Lewis (wrist), John Brown (undisclosed). Questionable: Reggie Gilliam (knee). Cole Beasley (leg).

Miami Dolphins:
IR list: Vince Biegal (achilles), Davon Godchuax (biceps), Preston Williams (foot). Doubtful: Jakeem Grant (ankle). Questionable: Elandon Roberts (knee), DeVante Parker (hamstring), Shaq Lawson (ankle), Solomon Kindley (knee).

Buffalo Bills Analysis

It is no secret the Bills are an offensive powerhouse this year. Their 38-9 rout of New England last was not far off from how they’ve been playing all season. They score 29.7 points (6th) and travel 392.5 yards (5th) per game. They’ve played especially well recently. Their average scoring margin of +23 in the last 3 weeks is the best of any team in the league. They trail just Baltimore for the most points per game in the same time span, with 37.3. One of their toughest challenges is ahead of them to close the season against a good Miami defense.

Quarterback Josh Allen is having a breakout year. His 4320 passing yards (3rd), 34 touchdowns (5th), and a quarterback rating of 106.4 (7th) all rank top 5 in the league. On Monday, he torched New England for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. His quarterback rating 138.7 was his third-best mark of the season. Entering this matchup against the Bills, expect another big game from him.

Beyond Allen, however, no player has thrived more under this offensive system than Stefon Diggs. The 27-year-old veteran recently broke the Bills’ franchise record for most receptions, currently a league-leading 120 (1st). He is coming off a monster, 9 reception, 145 yards, and 3 touchdown game against the Patriots. He simply can’t be stopped. But to make things worse for Buffalo, he has talented teammates too. Cole Beasley impressively has 82 receptions (17th) for 967 yards (18th) and 4 touchdowns (57th) as the team’s WR2. He has a chance to earn his first 1000 receiving yard season of his career, having already broken his previous best mark of 778 from 2019. Finally, there is Gabriel Davis to round out this receiving core. The rookie has only had 30 receptions for 459 yards but notably has a team-leading 6 touchdown catches (25th), which is 3rd among all 1st-year players. This talented crew is why Buffalo has the 2nd ranked passing offense in the league (282.9 passing yards per game).

The rushing game has not been as successful. Devin Singletary acts as the team’s lead back but only has rushed for 680 yards this season (22nd). To make things worse, he has rushed for just 2 touchdowns, which is 3rd on the team. Josh Allen leads all Bills players with ground scores this season. Zach Moss is the team’s 2nd back but just has 3 rushing touchdowns. He’s also rushed for less than 500 yards—the team as a whole rushes for 109.7 yards per game, 19th in the league. Don’t expect that to turn around against this Miami defense.

Speaking of defenses, Buffalo’s defense is also fairly strong. They hold opponents to just 345.7 yards (10th) and 23.3 points (15th). Especially when you consider the Bills score so many points, those numbers are very impressive. Jordan Poyer is the star of the defensive squad. He has a team-leading 122 tackles, but also 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles. Buffalo does much better against the pass than the run, so look for the Dolphins to keep that in mind entering this matchup.

Buffalo Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Devin Singletary
RB2: Zack Moss
WR1: Stefon Diggs
WR2: John Brown
WR3: Cole Beasley
TE: Dawson Knox

Miami Dolphins Analysis

Last week we saw a heroic finish by Ryan “Fitzmagic” to comeback against the Raiders. Down 2 at their own 25 with just 19 seconds left, the Harvard alum did the unthinkable. He threw 34 bombs to the sideline that landed perfectly between two defenders and into the hands of Mack Collins. He went out of bounds, but the clock would’ve stopped anyway because of a flagrant facemask that blinded Fitzpatrick as he threw it. The play went for 49 yards in total (34 yards passing, 15 added from a penalty). Jason Sanders kicked a 44 yarder to win it.

The game was somewhat reflective of the Dolphin’s season: messy, unpredictable, yet ultimately victorious. The Dolphins, for example, keep changing their quarterback. Fitzpatrick has started 7 games (mostly at the beginning of the season), while the young Tua Tagovailoa has started in 8. In two of the rookie’s starts, however, he has been benched for his veteran counterpart. That includes the last game in which Ryan showed his “Fitzmagic.” Heading into week 17, Tua will take the reins once again of this offense. The rookie has an impressive touchdown to interception ratio of 10 to 2. He is only throwing, however, for 170.4 yards per game. Expect another solid but safe performance from the Hawaii native.

Who these quarterbacks throw too often extends beyond wide receivers. Tight end Mike Gesicki and running back Myles Gaskin make up 2 of the team’s 4 leading receivers. Gesicki, especially, has made an impact on this team. The 25-year-old has accumulated 48 receptions (11th among tight ends) for 656 yards (4th among tight ends) and 6 touchdowns (8th among tight ends). He notably has caught more touchdown passes than anyone else on the team. Gaskin, meanwhile, is averaging just 36 receiving yards per game but has reeled in 2 touchdown passes. Either of these players can make an impact in the passing game.

The wide receivers of these teams are sure to be targeted as well. DeVante Parker leads the team with 56 receptions (47th) for 677 yards (49th) but just 4 touchdowns (57th). He missed last week due to a hamstring injury but is set to return in this one. With injuries to Jakeem Grant and Preston Williams, Miami will likely get Isaiah Ford more involved in the offense. The 24-year-old just broke his single-season reception record last game, currently with 25 on the year. He will likely continue seeing targets from Tua in this matchup. But changes at quarterback and the struggles of a rookie quarterback have given Miami the 25th ranked passing offense (223.5 passing yards per game). They may struggle to increase that average against a strong Buffalo secondary.

The Dolphins’ rushing offense has not been successful this season but has done better in recent games. On the season, they’re averaging 118.9 rushing yards per game, 17th in the league. It was just a couple of weeks ago when they had their first 100-yard rusher all season. Salvon Ahmed torched New England for 122 yards on the ground with his 23 attempts. Last game, his teammate, Myles Gaskin, knocked on the 100-yard door by rushing for 87. Expect the pair to continue their recent success against a below-average Bills rushing defense.

Statistically, Miami is middle of the pack offense. They average 25.2 points (15th) and 331.3 (23rd) yards per game. They’re an average Red Zone offense, scoring on 57.89% of visits (19th). Similarly, they’re not notably strong on third down, either, converting on 39.89% of attempts (24th). The Bills don’t have an elite defense, but they are likely strong enough to prevent a breakout game for this Dolphins offense.

It is this Dolphin’s defense that has carried this team. They hold opponents to just 362.1 yards (20th) and a league-leading 18.8 points (1st). Miami’s rushing defense is okay (118.9 ground yards allowed, 17th), but it is their secondary that makes this squad elite. They allow an average passer rating of just 85.3, the 4th lowest in the league. Even Josh Allen might struggle to pick apart this defense.

Above all else, Miami benefits from the best turnover margin of any team in the league. They are safe with the football (16 giveaways, 5th fewest), but it is their league-leading 27 takeaways that have made this team so successful this year. Cornerback Xavien Howard leads the NFL with his 9 interceptions. Notable quarterbacks he’s picked off include Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and most impressively, Patrick Mahomes. Watch for them to seal more takeaways from a Bills team with the 11th most giveaways this year (20).

Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB1: Matt Breida
RB2: Jordan Howard
WR1: DeVante Parker
WR2: Preston Williams
WR3: Jakeem Grant
TE: Mike Gesicki

Betting Corner: Buffalo Bills -4.5

Spread: -4.5 Bills
Moneyline: -215 Bills, +185 Dolphins
Over/Under: 47.5

Prediction

Spread: +4.5 Bills
Moneyline: +185 Dolphins
Over/Under: Under

I’m picking the underdog in this one both against the spread and outright. It goes without saying Miami is an underrated team; just look at their record against the spread (12-3), but my prediction goes beyond that. They’re playing a pass-heavy offense (Buffalo averages 37.2 passes per game, 12th) against a team that causes the most turnovers. It’s a recipe for a defensive showing for the Dolphins. Tua and his squad might struggle to put up points, but an improving running game will be enough to create the upset. Final score prediction: 23-20 Miami.

Daily Fantasy Love/Hate

Love: Myles Gaskin
Myles Gaskin is a great value pick in daily fantasy leagues. The 23-year-old is coming off a monster game of 33.9 fantasy points against Las Vegas. He totaled over 80 yards from both rushing and receiving. He is set to have a repeat strong performance this week against a Buffalo defense that allows the 11th most fantasy points to running backs (18.8 per game).

Hate: Devin Singletary
The running back for the opposing team, however, will not have a great game, in my view. Devin Singletary has struggled to be very fantasy relevant this year as he currently sits as the RB30. Last week he only went for 36 yards against the Patriots. He’s averaging just 9.67 fantasy points in his last 3 games, which closely matches his season average of 9.4. Against this strong Miami defense, don’t give Singletary a shot in either daily leagues or in year-long leagues if your fantasy season hasn’t finished yet.