Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (1/7/24)

Get Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins First Touchdown picks & odds for the (01/07/24) matchup as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Sunday’s game.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Bills vs. Dolphins matchup?

Raheem Mostert First Touchdown (+750 MGM)

It’s never fun to take the shortest odds on the board in this market, but the Dolphins best course of scoring when inside the red zone comes from their ground game. The Buffalo Bills front seven has been prone to getting run over by opposing running backs, ranking 18th in Def Rush DVOA, 12th in Def Rush Success Rate and 22nd in Def Rush EPA. This is in large part due to injuries, losing key production at every level of the defense throughout the season.

Mostert has been a touchdown machine for the Dolphins this season, rushing for 18 touchdowns and hauling in another three through the air. He’s led the Dolphins to impressive rushing marks of third in Rush DVOA, fifth in Rush Success Rate, and sixth in Rush EPA. Mostert’s success heavily stems from an elite offensive line, a unit that ranks third in Adjusted Line Yards and excels at creating high quality rushing lanes for him to exploit.

There is a fear of potentially getting vultured by Devon Achane, yet those fears can be tempered as they get closer to the goal line as Mostert has been their lead goal line back. The Bills also tend to anchor their linebackers in place, selling out to add to their coverage and leave them prone to giving up sizable yards at a time to opposing running backs.

With the Dolphins fielding one of the potent pass attacks in the league, even potentially without Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert should find himself with plenty of open field to work with as he bursts through the trenches. His odds drastically vary between sportsbooks, being as low as +550 and as high as +750. Always have as many books as you can get and line shop to get the best available number.

Gabe Davis First Touchdown (+1600 FD)

Josh Allen gets a lot of heat for his turnover issues yet has done a masterful job at leading the Bills to near league best offensive metrics. The Bills enter this contest ranked third in Pass DVOA, fourth in Pass Success Rate and fourth in Pass EPA. This mainly stems from an offensive line that has ranked first in Adjusted Sack Rate and has given Josh Allen a clean pocket to work with.

This angle of Gabe Davis’ TD is a thing of beauty. Great route and catch from Gabe Davis, but an even better throw from Josh Allen 🙌 pic.twitter.com/tVpj0GNDcm

— Buffalo Bills Source (@billsource_) December 30, 2023

They now get a chance to shred a hobbled secondary who has been hit or miss with their coverage. They come fresh off a lackluster performance against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, allowing Lamar to toss for five touchdowns and just three incompletions. They now need to turn around from that 19-56 beating and defend another high-powered offense that is chalk full of productive pass catchers.

One of those pass catchers in a position to cash this prop is Gabe Davis, the Bills second go-to receiver who plays second fiddle to Stefon Diggs. With Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow Diggs, expect Davis to benefit from plenty of singular coverage as a dangerous down field threat. Especially with Xavien Howard out, getting the opportunity to attack Eli Apple who is an underwhelming cornerback.

Dalton Kincaid First Touchdown (+1600 FD)

With Diggs expected to command a brunt of the secondary’s attention, Dalton Kincaid also benefits from potential lackluster coverage as he exploits the gaps in the red zone. Touchdowns have been a rarity for the rookie tight end, yet it’s worth noting he was held to relatively nothing early on until Dawson Knox was knocked out for a while with an injury.

He now gets an opportunity to make his case of why he should be the starting tight end for the Bills moving forward, getting to attack a middling Dolphins pass defense. While Miami’s coverage metrics have steadily improved, they still rank 18th in Def Pass DVOA, 13th in Def Pass Success Rate and 11th in Def Pass EPA.

Better yet in the Bills favor, stud linebackers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will be out with an injury which ticks back their impressive seventh ranked Def Adjusted Sack Rate metric. That means less pressure from the defense, giving Josh Allen a clean pocket to work with and potentially avoiding him scrambling for a touchdown as well. 

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