Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Player Props & Picks (1/7/24)

Get Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins player prop picks & odds for the (1/7/24) matchup

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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks

The Miami Dolphins (11-5) and Buffalo Bills (10-6) square off on the final Sunday Night Football game of the 2023-24 season (1/7/24) with the AFC East title on the line. The Bills are road favorites at -3 against the spread, while a high-scoring game is expected with an over/under set at 48.5 total points.

This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins player prop bets.

Josh Allen under 36.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Josh Allen is one of the best running quarterbacks in the league, but he has had a down season by his standards. He is averaging his fewest rushing attempts per game of his career (6.0) and his second-fewest yards per game (28.6).

It’s no surprise, therefore, that fading his rushing props has been a good strategy this season. The under has hit on his rushing yards prop line in 11 of his 16 games this season, and he has only surpassed 36 rushing yards six times. One of those games happened to be last week when he gained 44 yards against New England, but he averaged just 23.7 yards per game in his previous three games.

Miami has been very good at containing mobile QBs this season. They are ninth in the league in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks, holding them to just 14.8 yards per game on 3.65 yards per carry. Last week against the Ravens, they held the league’s leading QB rusher Lamar Jackson to just 35 yards. Allen had just 17 yards on four carries against them back in Week 4.

Allen does have a decent chance of getting into the end zone on the ground. He is tied with Jalen Hurts for the second-most rushing TDs this season with 15, and Miami has allowed five rushing TDs by QBs this season, tied for sixth most in the league. However, that won’t help him in the yardage department, where we feel very good about fading him this week.

Our only hesitation with this pick is the Dolphins’ injury situation, as they could be very depleted at linebacker with both David Long Jr. and Duke Riley on the injury report. However, both players are trending toward playing, so that is not enough to push us off this pick.

Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (+100 at BetMGM)

We love finding good player props at even money or better, and this bet on Dalton Kincaid’s receptions is our favorite one in this game. The talented rookie has at least four catches in 11 of his 15 games this season. After a couple of quiet games in a row, he got back on track last week with four catches for 87 yards against the Patriots. Prior to the two previous quiet games, he had at least four catches in seven straight games.

The Dolphins can be vulnerable against tight ends. They have given up 82 receptions to tight ends this season (5.13 per game), which is tied for the 11th most in the league. They have allowed at least four receptions to their opponent’s top tight end in five of their last seven games. Kincaid had four catches against them back in Week 4.

Kincaid has firmly supplanted Dawson Knox as the Bills’ top tight end. He has more than double Knox’s targets, receptions and yards per game this season, and he is second on the team in both targets and receptions. With Stefon Diggs struggling recently and facing a difficult matchup against Jalen Ramsey, Kincaid could be Josh Allen’s go-to pass catcher in this game. That should lead to more than enough volume for him to catch at least four passes. At even money, that makes this player prop bet a solid pick and a very good value.

Stefon Diggs under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

For our final player prop pick in this game, we wanted to look at one of the Miami running backs, particularly DeVon Achane, who could be in line for his second consecutive game as the lead back with Raheem Mostert looking increasingly unlikely to play in this game. However, because of the uncertainty surrounding Mostert, neither Achane nor Mostert has any player prop odds available at the time of this writing.

Instead, we turned our attention to the aforementioned star-studded matchup between Diggs and Ramsey. Ramsey missed the first game between these teams in Week 4 as he was still recovering from his preseason injury. Diggs had one of his best games of the season that week with six catches for 120 yards and a whopping three touchdowns.

He did most of his damage in that game against Dolphins CB Kader Kohou, as Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio refused to have his top CB (at the time) Xavien Howard shadowing Diggs, particularly when he lined up in the slot. Fangio has since changed his strategy when it comes to allowing his corners to travel with the opponent’s top receiver, as he had Ramsey shadowing the Jets’ Garrett Wilson in Week 15.

With Howard expected to miss this game, we are expecting Ramsey to shadow Diggs for most of this game. As such, we are fading the talented but struggling wide receiver. Diggs has basically been non-existent since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as the Bills’ offensive coordinator. Since Week 10, he is averaging just 4.3 receptions on 7.9 targets for 37.4 yards per game. He has gone over 60 receiving yards just once in his last seven games, and we don’t like his chances to reverse that trend this week.

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