Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Matchup Preview (10/18/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Matchup Preview (10/17/21)
The Bills enter this game as one of the NFL’s hottest teams. Buffalo was won four straight since their embarrassing Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, outscoring their opponents 156-41 in the process.
Meanwhile, the Titans have been one of the league’s most underwhelming teams, recently losing a game to the hapless Jets. The defense is hopeless, and the offense has been handicapped by injuries to Julio Jones and Taylor Lewan.
However, should the Bills still be laying 5.5 points on the road in this matchup? Let’s dive in and see where the value lies.
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Odds
This is the biggest trap line of the 2021 NFL season.
However, the Titans opened closer to -3 and have since been bet up to -5.5. I’m going to take the line movement, and I do think the Bills win by a touchdown in this spot.
The Titans are banged up. They have injuries at every position, and Tennessee is currently running with zero depth. This defense is almost as bad as Kansas City’s, and we saw how Josh Allen carved up the Chiefs at Arrowhead last week.
If I’m a square for taking the Bills in this spot, so be it. I won’t be caught dead with a Titans +5.5 ticket.
My Predictions: Bills -5.5 (-110)
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Date: Monday, October 18
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
TV Coverage: ESPN
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Live Stream
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Buffalo Bills: Matt Milano (Q),
Tennessee Titans: Caleb Farley (Q), Chester Rogers (Q), Julio Jones (P)
Buffalo Bills Analysis
This perfectly sums up the Bills season:
- 2021 Bills points per game: 34.40
- 2021 Bills points allowed per game: 12.80
- 2021 Bills point differential per game: 21.60
Through five weeks, the Bills are averaging a three-touchdown victory per game.
That success hinges on their defense, which has been historically efficient this far into the season.
Per Football Outsiders, the Bills have posted a -43.2% DVOA rating this season, first in the NFL. The Carolina Panthers rank second at -16.6%. Moreover, the Bills’ defense has recorded -0.265 expected points added per play (EPA/P), also first in the NFL. The Panthers also rank second in that stat, at -0.149.
The point being, the Bills’ defense isn’t just the best in the NFL, it’s nearly twice as good as every other defense in the league. You can’t move the ball or score on this team, which is why the Chiefs managed less than three touchdowns on Sunday Night Football last week.
Buffalo’s offense isn’t quite as good, but they still rank in the top half of the league in most meaningful metrics.
That doesn’t totally matter, however, as the Bills are elite at the most important position. Allen has completed over 62% of his passes for 1,367 yards and a 12:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also third in the NFL in Big Time Throws this season, with 16.
However, some of Allen’s advanced stats are dragged down from an underwhelming first two weeks. He’s really cranked it up over the past few games:
- Week 3 vs. WAS: 32-for-43 (74.4%), 358 yards (8.3 YPA), 4 TD, 0 INT, 83.3 PFF grade
- Week 4 vs. HOU: 20-for-29 (69.0%), 245 yards (8.4 YPA), 2 TD, 1 INT, 72.6 PFF grade
- Week 5 @ KC: 15-for-26 (57.7%), 315 yards (12.1 YPA), 3 TD, 0 INT, 92.3 PFF grade
Buffalo Bills Depth Chart
Tennessee Titans Analysis
The Titans defense is a disaster.
Here’s how the Titans rank in some advanced stat categories:
- 27th in Defensive DVOA
- 25th in Passing DVOA
- 27th in Rushing DVOA
- 22nd in EPA allowed per play
- 30th in Rushing Success Rate
- 25th in PFF’s rush defense grades
While the Titans are scoring 26 points per game, they’re also allowing 26 points per game.
Now, that usually isn’t an issue for Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and the high-powered Titan offense. However, recent injuries have hampered their ability to score more points than their defense allows.
Specifically, the injury to Jones. Remember, the Titans lost a lot of important weapons last offseason, including Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries — three of their top five targets from 2020.
Jones was expected to make up a lot of that lost production. With him on the sidelines, he can’t do any of that, and the Titans are severely handicapped because of it.
Tennessee Titans Depth Chart
Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans Daily Fantasy Picks
I’d stay away from any and all Titans in this matchup. This is such a stifling Bills defense, that no one on the Tennessee offense can be trusted.
On the Buffalo side, I would avoid Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox. The Titans defense ranks seventh in pass defense DVOA vs. #1 WRs and third against TEs.
However, the Tennessee defense ranks 26th in that stat against #2 WRs and 29th against “other” WRs. That leaves us with Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders, who are the most common targets outside of Diggs and Knox.
Moreover, I’d take a look at Devin Singletary in this spot as well. The Titan defense is hopeless in most facets, but they’re particularly weak against the run. Given the Buffalo offensive line ranks sixth in adjusted line yards, they should have no issue pushing around the Tennessee front seven, and Singletary should benefit greatly from that.
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