On Wednesday (11/15/23), Buffalo faces Miami OH in an intriguing matchup in the Mid-American Conference. In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game and our best bet which is Buffalo +9.
Buffalo Bulls Vs. Miami OH RedHawks Prediction
Miami OH is one win away from clinching a spot in the MAC title game for a rematch against Toledo, who has already clinched the MAC West. First, Miami OH must avoid tripping up against a Buffalo team that could present some potential pitfalls. Buffalo is just 3-7 this season, and it doesn’t have much left to fight for but pride as bowl eligibility is out the window.
Despite the perceived difference in motivation in this game, I believe Buffalo is the value side on the spread. The Bulls played a solid game against Ohio last week, and while they ultimately fell short of a cover, they outgained the Bobcats by nearly 60 yards in a ten point loss. The difference was a missed field goal and a late fumble that set Ohio up inside the 40-yard line.
While I don’t believe Buffalo is a particularly well coached team with Maurice Linguist at the helm, they have fielded a strong defense, particularly against the pass where they rank 11th in EPA/play allowed. Miami OH’s starting quarterback Brett Gabbert is out for the year, and Aveon Smith isn’t going to test this Buffalo secondary.
Buffalo’s quarterback situation isn’t much better as Cole Snyder ranks 155th out of 162 qualified FBS passers with a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt. He’s seemingly gotten worse lately, as well, with three big-time throws to just ten turnover-worthy plays over his last five games. That said, he’s not 8.5 points worse than Smith.
Sometimes you have to plug your nose and back a terrible coach and terrible quarterback, and that’s what I’m doing with Buffalo in this game. Miami OH should pull this out, but the Bulls are live for an upset in a game where they have nothing to lose and will be looking to play spoiler against their divisional rival.
Buffalo Vs. Miami OH Prediction: Buffalo +9
Buffalo Vs. Miami OH Best Odds
The spread for this game originally opened at Miami OH -7.5 before action hit the favorites and drove it to -9. Now, many books are back at 8.5 points on the spread. Keep an eye on the line movement as 7 and 8 are both key numbers in this range. The over/under currently sits at 39.5 points.
Buffalo Vs. Miami OH Key Matchups
I spent a lot of time breaking down the limitations of the quarterbacks above, but let’s spotlight the solid running backs these teams feature for our key matchups of the game.
Ron Cook Jr. Vs. Miami OH’s Run Defense
It’s been a tough year for Ron Cook Jr. as the starting running back for Buffalo with just 4.3 yards per attempt, which ranks well below the national average. Due to Snyder’s limitations as a passer, defenses have been able to stack the box against Buffalo, which has significantly reduced Cook’s efficiency.
Things won’t get much easier for Cook this week against a Miami defense ranked top 50 in rushing EPA allowed. Cook could see solid involvement out of the backfield, however, and he hauled in four catches for 25 yards last week. Regardless of how it comes, the Bulls would be wise to get Cook the ball.
Rashad Amos Vs. Buffalo’s Run Defense
With Gabbert out for the year, Miami OH has shifted to being more of a run-heavy offense, and that’s meant a heavy dose of South Carolina transfer Rashad Amos. Over the past two weeks, in wins over Ohio and Akron, Amos has totaled 36 carries for 281 yards and three touchdowns. Against Ohio, he forced a whopping ten missed tackles per PFF.
Buffalo’s run defense hasn’t been quite as stout as their pass defense, but they still rank 27th in rushing success rate allowed and 51st in PFF’s run defense grades. Buffalo’s ability to limit Miami OH’s time of possession will be crucial to finding success this week, and with Smith’s passing deficiencies, expect a heavy dose of Amos for the RedHawks.