Buffalo vs. Toledo kicks off Tuesday (10/31/23) at 7:30 p.m. EST in Toledo as a home game for the Rockets. Get Buffalo vs. Toledo predictions and best bets below. Our best bet is that Toledo will cover the spread in dominant fashion.
Buffalo Vs. Toledo Prediction
Toledo, the reigning MAC champions, are off to a good start, sitting at 7-1 and with a two-game lead in the East division. The Rockets have excelled at both sides of the ball and look like a potential repeat champion. Buffalo sits at second in the West division and is trying to keep within striking distance of division-leading Miami. A potential massive tie breaker may loom later this season.
Buffalo is a sizable underdog as Toledo presents a major challenge. While the Buffalo defense has put up respectable metrics, it may not possess enough offense to keep within scoring pace as they currently rank near dead last in the nation in both overall Off Success Rate and Off Explosiveness.
Looking deeper into the Bulls overall offensive woes, their struggles can be pinpointed to their inconsistent pass attack. They currently ranks 128th in both Pass Explosiveness and Pass Success Rate, as well as clocking in at 109th in Pass Explosiveness. Scarier yet, they currently run the pass at the 38th heaviest rate in the nation. All to practically no success.
That spells potential disaster against an impressive Toledo secondary, which currently ranks 28th in Def Pass PPA and 16th in Def Pass Success Rate. The Rockets are susceptible to getting thrown over the top with a weak Def Explosiveness rank. But Buffalo has shown no capability of exploiting that. Factor in a 30th-ranked Havoc metric, and the Toledo defense is more than capable of getting the Buffalo offense off the field in a hurry or flipping the field in our favor as a major favorite.
When Toledo has the ball, points should come at a consistent rate as they have key advantages in various metrics. The Rockets excel in the Success Rate department when in the middle of the field, and are more than capable of gaining enough yardage to routinely move the sticks against a Buffalo defense that ranks 77th in Def Pass Success Rate. When in scoring position, Toledo can revert back to a heavy dose of the run as they rank 32nd in PPA in comparison to Buffalo’s 73rd rank in Def Rush PPA.
Buffalo Vs. Toledo Prediction: Toledo -15.5
Buffalo Vs. Toledo Best Odds
With massive advantages on both sides of the ball, oddsmakers have this as Toledo’s game to lose. The Rockets opened as a -14 favorite. That number quickly steamed up to -15, touching -15.5 in some shops as of writing. This current number still has value across the board, being a playable wager up to the next key number of -17.
As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a fast pace. They opened the number at 51.5. Bettors are in the same belief, backing the total up to the widely available 52.5. This is heavily predicated on Buffalo’s ability to score as Toledo should have no issue with moving the ball into scoring position. Rush defense is a weakness for Toledo, yet Buffalo is league average in Rush Success Rate and well below average in PPA and Explosiveness.
Buffalo Vs. Toledo Key Matchups
Can Toledo’s front seven slow down the Buffalo rush attack enough to avoid the backdoor?
Buffalo Ground Game Vs. Toledo Front Seven
As previously mentioned, the main weakness for Toledo is its struggles to contain the ground game. The Rockets currently rank 73rd in Def Rush Success Rate, 76th in Def Rush PPA, and 60th in Def Rush Explosiveness.
— UB Football (@UBFootball) October 23, 2023
While that presents some unease with covering a big spread, bettors can rest assured that Buffalo will struggle to take advantage on the ground. Their numbers suggest they should find some moderate success at moving the ball in the mid field, yet Buffalo calls the run at one of the lowest rates in the nation and are severely underwhelming when inside the red zone.