Get Cardinals vs. Steelers player prop picks & odds for the (12/3/23) matchup
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Cardinals vs. Steelers Player Prop Picks
The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) host the Arizona Cardinals (2-10) this Sunday (12/03/23) at 1:00 p.m. EST. The Steelers are betting favorites at -5.5 against the spread, with a modest over/under of 41.5. Sports bettors may be more interested in betting on player prop bets in this game, and this article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets and recommends the best Cardinals vs. Steelers player prop bets.
Kenny Pickett over 195.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Blame Canada! In the Steelers’ first game without recently fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada, they finally unlocked their offense and gained over 400 total yards for the first time in 59 games last week against the Bengals. They gained 278 of those yards through the air as Kenny Pickett tossed a season-high in passing yards.
Steelers going for over 400 yards for the first time in 59 games today is quite a hilarious added layer to the whole “Fire Canada” situation
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 26, 2023
They did that against a Bengals defense that was somewhat respectable (13th in DVOA against the pass). Now they face a Cardinals defense that is 30th in defensive DVOA and 31st against the pass. The Cardinals have allowed at least 200 passing yards in 9 of their 12 games this season and 8 of the 12 quarterbacks they’ve faced have gone over their passing yards prop line.
Pickett has at least 220 passing yards in 6 of his 11 games this season – five of which came with Canada as OC. Returning home after his best game of the season, it would be difficult not to expect another solid game (at least) with a great matchup. We’re leaning all the way into the “Blame Canada” narrative and betting on Pickett to have another good day through the air this week.
George Pickens over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Let’s go ahead and pair our Pickett bet with one of his pass catchers. For that, our favorite target in this game (no pun intended!) is George Pickens, the talented but inconsistent 2nd-year wide receiver.
Our first option would have been tight end Pat Freiermuth, who had a breakout game with 9 catches for 120 yards last week, but the Cardinals are surprisingly very good against opposing tight ends. They’re allowing the 4th-fewest receptions and yards per game to the position, while the Bengals (last week’s opponent whom Freiermuth torched) are in the bottom 4 in both of those categories.
As such, we focused on wide receivers, and prefer Pickett over his teammate Diontae Johnson, who just has bad vibes right now after a locker room argument two weeks ago and a poor, low-effort game last week. He also missed his first practice of this week with an illness and might not be 100% for this game.
That leaves Pickens as the most promising pass catcher for Pickett this week. Pickens has at least 45 receiving yards in 2 of his last 3 games and in 6 games overall this season. He is leading the team in receptions, yards and yards per game, as he is averaging 60.2 per game. He has hit the over on his yards prop in 7 of his 11 games this season, including his last 3 in a row.
The Cardinals have allowed the 8th-most yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season. At least one WR has gone over his yards prop against them in all but one game. We expect that trend to continue this week, and Pickens is the best Steelers WR on whom to bet.
Jaylen Warren under 11.5 rushing attempts (+110 at DraftKings)
We love to find player prop bets we like at plus odds, and this is our favorite one in this game. Warren has mostly lived up to his preseason hype and is having a very good season all things considered. However, he has done a lot of his damage through the air, and has not been as involved on the ground until recently.
Warren had three straight games of excellent rushing production from weeks 9 through 11, gaining totals of 88, 101, and 129 yards in those three games. He only had 12+ carries in one of those games (15 carries in week 10), and then had 13 carries last week against Cincinnati. Despite his excellent 5.8 yards per carry average this season, those were his only two games this season with over 11.5 rushing attempts, and he is averaging 8.5 per game on the season.
Najee Harris continues to be the Steelers starting running back, and he had his best game of the season last week with 99 rushing yards on 6.6 yards per attempt. After a performance we like that, we don’t expect the Steelers to diminish his workload this week.
There is always a chance that Warren gets the hot hand early and the Steelers decide to ride him for most of the game. That is what happened a few times during his excellent 3-game stretch. But based on both backs’ recent performance and overall usage this season, betting on Warren to have 11 or fewer carries in this game is a solid bet. At plus odds, it’s also a solid value.