Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers (5/24/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
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The Rangers stole Game 3 at home behind a Herculean effort from goalie Igor Shesterkin, who is still considered by many to be the best goalie in hockey.
The Rangers were out-shot and lost the faceoff battle considerably, but Mika Zibanejad put home a goal and recorded an assist in the two-point effort and Carolina still has to win two more games to advance.
I wouldn’t count the Hurricanes out, however. Money Puck puts the Game 3post-game win expectancy at 57.2% for the Hurricanes, as the Rangers needed Sheesterkin to have any hope in that one.
But can Igor and co. keep it up and protect home ice again?
Let’s dive into the betting odds and my prediction for this Game 4 battle.
Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers Betting Odds
It’s surprising to see the Rangers as slight favorites in this one, considering Carolina is likely the better team.
But then again, the Rangers went 27-10-4 at home this season and the Hurricanes have yet to win a playoff game on the road during this run.
The sharp money is all over the Hurricanes in the early going, with Carolina pulling in less than 50% of the tickets but over 75% of the handle.
The over sits at 5.5 still even though the under has hit in all three games this series. Although there is moderate sharp money on the over.
Carolina Hurricanes Analysis
What did Carolina do wrong in Game 3?
Honestly, not much. As mentioned, they out-shot New York 44-33 in the game and won the faceoffs 37-26.
But they did go 0-3 on the power play, which was likely the decider in the game as the Rangers converted on one of their two PP opportunities.
Carolina has a lackluster man-up unit, however, with the Hurricanes finishing 23rd during the NHL regular season in Expected Goal Percentage (in 5-on-4 situations). They finished 17th in Expected Goals For, but that’s only moderately better.
The Rangers were league-average in penalty minutes during the regular season, so the Hurricanes should get a few more chances in Game 4. It’ll be imperative to put those home.
Antti Raanta has been mostly average during this season. He posted 0.55 Goals Saved Above Expected in Game 3, however, and is fifth in that stat through the playoffs so far. The defenders in front of Raanta finished seventh in the regular season in Expected Goals Against, so Raanta doesn’t have to do too much.
New York Rangers Analysis
The Rangers got outplayed in the box score, but they mostly dominated in the expected stats. The major contributors for New York outperformed Carolina in the chances they had and that led them to the win.
Image credit: Money Puck
Shesterkin is the best goalie in the National Hockey League, despite anyone who defends Andrei Vasilevskiy. He put up 1.8 Goals Saved Above Expected in Game 3, which is a dominant performance and the reason the Rangers aren’t down 3-0. He took 44 shots on the net and saved 43.
That’s a truly special performance.
But he’s been doing it all year. Shesterkin is currently the all-time leader in save percentage for any goalie that’s started a minimum of 100 games. Igor put up 34.1 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, while Vasilevskiy was second all the way down at 34.1.
It’s going to be so hard to beat the Rangers at home with Shesterkin playing this well.
Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers Picks & Prediction
My pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML (+100 at WynnBet Sportsbook)
But I’m going to bet against Shesterkin and the Rangers in this spot.
Because Carolina should’ve won Game 3 and Money Puck’s simulations give Carolina a 51.8% chance to win Game 4. Yet, they’re underdogs at most sportsbooks.
Carolina is the better team, and it’s finally time they breakthrough in an away game.
But even if they don’t, it’s still clear the value is with Carolina in this game. At anything better than -105, I’ll be backing Carolina as road dogs in New York.
Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers Starting Goalies & Line Combination
