Boston Celtics Vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA Player Props & Picks (1/11/24)

The Boston Celtics head to the Midwest for a battle with the Milwaukee Bucks in a matchup that never fails to keep fans on the edge of their seats! Find our favorite Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks player props and picks below, including an in-depth analysis of why we will play them!

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Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks Player Prop Picks

Our favorite Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks player prop picks are Khris Middleton to hit two or more three-pointers at -150 odds and Brook Lopez to fail to record a steal at +100 odds.

Khris Middleton Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (-150)

It has been a slow start to the 2023-24 regular season for Khris Middleton, but he has played (and shot) quite a bit better recently. In Middleton’s past 11 games, he has averaged 18.2 points, 6.4 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game on a 52/42/87 shooting split.

During that span of 11 games, Middleton has also hit at least two three-pointers nine times, giving this prop a hit rate just shy of 82% on an implied probability of 60%.

In other words, he has been shooting the lights out of the ball. Middleton has also knocked down 39% of his attempts from deep in his past 15 regular season games against the Cs, hitting the Over on this line a whopping 12 times.

Boston allows the second-most wide-open three-point attempts to opponents this season. With so much of the Celtics’ defensive focus inevitability on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, Middleton should have plenty of opportunities to knock down catch-and-shoot threes off of kicks from their drives.

The Celtics have also not been a great road team this season (relative to their talent), holding merely an 11-8 record away from T.D. Garden while letting opponents knock down 37% of their threes.

Lastly, Boston is on the second night of a home-to-road back-to-back, which means that right after its narrow overtime win at home against the Timberwolves, the Cs had to hop on a plane to fly to Milwaukee for another game tonight against another top-tier team.

Four of Boston’s five starters played over 40 minutes last night, and that could result in late rotations to shooters like Khris Middleton, especially if the Celtics over-help in the paint on Giannis.

Brook Lopez Under 0.5 Steals (+100)

Enter the betting sauna with us for a fun sweat on Brook Lopez’s steals props. It will be fun to bet an Under!

Lopez has become known for his elite rim protection and drop coverage defense due to his size, length, physicality, IQ, and impressive shot timing; however, he doesn’t have the quickest hands in the world and does not record many steals.

Lopez has averaged 0.6 steals this season, but he has only recorded one or more steals in merely three of his past ten games.

With the way Lopez plays defense (dropping down low off of ball screens), he doesn’t have many opportunities to strip ball handlers on the ball or deflect passes. Occasionally, he could get his hands on an alley-oop attempt, but he would actually have to have possession of the ball to record a steal.

Additionally, Boston is the most three-point-reliant team in the NBA, getting 40% of its total points from behind the arc, which does not bode well for Lopez’s chances of logging a steal. The Cs also allow the sixth-fewest steals to opposing centers for exactly that reason.

Boston also ranks ninth in turnovers per game, so it is not a very turnover-prone team. That should not come as a surprise to anyone. And, finally, the Celtics rank 24th in points in the paint, so Lopez will not see much action defensively.

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