Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat: Predictions, Starting Lineups (2/11/24)

In a matchup between bitter rivals, the Boston Celtics (40-12) take on the Miami Heat (28-24) this Sunday (2/11/24). Get Celtics vs. Heat moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Prediction

Two threes must be made by the time the game clock hits 8:59 for the bet to hit.

Both defenses struggle to defend the arc. Boston gives up the third most open plus wide open three-point attempts per game, while Miami surrenders the tenth most (via NBA.com). Additionally, both squads feature excellent interior defenses that deter rim attempts and encourage jump shots.

Opportunities mean nothing if they result in missed shots, so can these teams convert? The Celtics lead the NBA in three-point attempt rate and boast shooting at all five positions. Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, and Porzingis are all more than capable of knocking down shots from deep. Boston as a whole ranks 7th in three-point percentage.

Meanwhile, Miami comes in at 12th in three-point percentage. Although Bam Adebayo is a non-shooter, the rest of the lineup (Herro, Rozier, Martin, Jaquez Jr) all have a three-point shot in their arsenal, especially Herro (40.8 3PT%, 8.1 3PA).

Overall, it’s a matchup between two teams that bleed open three-point attempts and simultaneously find success from behind the arc on offense. Look for threes to fly in this game.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Prediction: 2 or More Made 3PM in the First 3 Minutes (-110 FD)

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Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Best Odds

Boston is favored by 7.5 points in this contest, which is logical given their league leading 40-12 record. They are only 10-12-2 against the spread on the road though; however, Miami owns an uglier 11-16 against the spread record at home.

For Miami’s +198 moneyline to be profitable in the long run, they need to win here at least 33 percent of the time.

Boston Celtics Starting Lineup

PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Kristaps Porzingis

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Tyler Herro
SG: Terry Rozier
SF: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Bam Adebayo

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Injuries

Trade deadline additions Xavier Tillman and Jaden Springer are out for Boston. On the other side, Jimmy Butler is out too.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Key Matchups

Kristaps Porzingis’ Rim Protection

It’s a given that Boston will be shooting a hefty amount of threes, but Miami’s game plan fluctuates. The Heat consistently like to feed Adebayo earlier though, and he’s strictly a two-point shooter. Therefore, Porzingis must show Miami why it’s a poor idea to attack the paint here, thus causing them to adapt and take threes. His rim protection is a huge X Factor here.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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